For a year and a half, going through the office has been a rarity in the Western world. Companies have emptied their buildings of employees to avoid contagion of Covid-19. But Pimco, the largest specialist fixed income manager on the planet, with more than $ 2.2 trillion under management, believes that localizations prime and the cities with the highest density will benefit. The brick for logistics is the big winner, thanks to the rise of e-commerce.
Pimco, known as the manager with the most knowledge of the debt market, also works deeply in the real estate market, in which it manages some 180,000 million dollars worldwide, including the assets it oversees of Allianz Real Estate. In a note, John Murray, global director of the real estate area of the firm, points out that you cannot make a clean sweep. There are big winners and also undoubted losers in the sector.
The industrial brick, mainly the one destined for logistics platforms, has been the big winner, with institutional demand at all-time highs, supported by the unparalleled increase in electronic commerce. Covid-19 has changed shopping habits once and for all.
Side B is in the brick directly related to the sale to the general public. “Real estate in the retail sector is suffering with its tenants, and we do not believe that you will bail them out [de los estados] they are enough to save many of these assets in difficulties ”, explains the Pimco manager. “In fact, it seems that the problems will increase in 2022,” he adds. Still, expect opportunities in real estate rented to businesses and restaurants as long as prices plummet.
“The hotel industry has been a loser in the short term, but in our opinion, it should gradually recover,” says Murray. He warns that the sector is drastically improving in the United States, but that pressures remain in Europe, as restrictions there are extending further over time.
Residential housing is another of the segments that is performing better, according to Pimco, although it issues a warning to sailors in the United States: defaults may begin to occur once the government’s aid plans conclude. At the same time, it highlights that non-traditional residential sectors, such as housing for the elderly and students, are experiencing an increase in institutional demand.
In the offices, two phenomena occur that compensate. The decision of employers to offer flexible hours and, at the same time, to reduce the density of employees in the main offices balance the situation. What is clear, in Pimco’s opinion, is that the demand for offices in locations prime will be much more affected by telecommuting. “Higher density cities may be more resistant,” they predict.
– .
