Petroleum. Fuel prices in January 2022 – forecasts of BM Reflex, e-petrol

Fuel prices at stations in Poland may rise in the second half of January, analysts forecast. The reason is the increasing price of crude oil and rising wholesale prices in Poland.

The second edition of the so-called of the anti-inflationary shield is assumed by, inter alia, temporary reduction of VAT from 23% up to 8 percent for engine fuels: diesel oil, biocomponents constituting self-contained fuels, gasoline, LPG gas. The act, which is to enter into force on February 1, 2022, was submitted to the Senate.

The analysts of the Reflex Brokerage House indicated in the comment that it is obvious that the reduction of the VAT rate on fuels from 23 to 8 percent. will automatically translate into a reduction in fuel prices at stations. “Fuel prices, however, will still depend on the level of crude oil and fuel prices on the European market and the dollar exchange rate. The fact that we will pay a lower tax does not mean that prices will remain stable at the level of PLN 5 per liter” – emphasized analysts.

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Fuel prices in Poland

In their opinion, however, before prices at the stations drop, we can see their increase due to the more expensive crude oil, which already translates into prices on the domestic wholesale market. A further increase in wholesale prices may force fuel stations to rise until the end of January, especially diesel prices, emphasized BM Reflex.

The e-petrol industry portal also estimates that “before drivers see a reduction of 70 cents per liter of gasoline or diesel on the distributors, in the second half of January they may be surprised by changes in the opposite direction”. The price of diesel may be more expensive. Analysts pointed out that wholesale fuels have been systematically becoming more expensive since the beginning of the year.

E-petrol forecasts show that next week the average price of 95 petrol will be in the range of PLN 5.69-5.80 per liter, diesel – PLN 5.78-5.90 per liter, and autogas – PLN 3.07- PLN 3.15 per liter.

PAP / Maciej Zieliński

Crude oil – quotes

BM Reflex recalled the opinion of the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that oil demand is much more resistant to the negative effects of the spread of the omicron variant than many observers believe. According to analysts of this office, this may suggest an upward revision by the IEA of the latest demand forecasts, which will appear on January 19. The US energy agency EIA expects global oil consumption to increase by 3.6 million barrels per day this year, and by 1.8 million barrels per day next year.

In the opinion of e-petrol.pl, the upward sentiment in the market has not yet been broken by concerns about the omicron. “For now, it can be seen that the factors related to the concerns about the supply of the raw material turn out to be more serious than the problem of the omicron, which is treated as a slightly ‘milder’ form of COVID-19, so it does not raise concerns about such drastic lockdowns as the first variants of the virus” – e-petrol analysts pointed out.

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude in February night deliveries was $ 83.83 on NYMEX in New York. Brent crude oil on ICE in London for March deliveries was priced at $ 86 a barrel.

photo-source">Main photo source: PAP / Darek Delmanowicz

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