The entire country is working to ensure that prices on the Vistula River do not increase before the elections. On the contrary – we are supposed to have the impression that Poland is a lonely island run by the best government in the world that cares about Poles. He is not influenced by anything and controls the economy manually, without causing disruptions, because he knows how to do it. Everything for our good, everything for the sake of our wallets. It sounds beautiful, right? Unfortunately, this is one big manipulation and mirage painted by the United Right for the elections. After October 15, Poland will have to foot the bill. Considerable.
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See also: Prices at gas stations will break the magical limit. “It’s already happening”
Orlen and the company influence inflation by building a mirage of low prices
The most spectacular display of painting grass green is given by Orlen. At money.pl we were one of the first to write that there is something wrong with fuel prices in Poland. Our text about the anomaly noticed by the Americans at the stations was read by over a million people. A nationwide discussion broke out as to how it is possible that with the zloty falling rapidly (nearly 6% weakening against the dollar in one month) and rising oil prices (Brent rose from $75 per barrel in June to nearly $95). Currently), fuel prices on the Vistula River are not rising, but are actually falling. The answer is politics. Only politics.
Orlen artificially lowers fuel prices. This is a fact. If historical relations were preserved, diesel prices could be around PLN 7.50 per liter. This is over 20 percent. more than the current price. And just to be clear, the world knows such tricks. There are signals that in France the largest operator has frozen prices at EUR 1.99/liter, while according to market indications they should be about 5 percent lower. higher. However, it is 5%, not 20%.
Viktor Orban also made his contribution by freezing prices before last year’s elections so effectively that the stations eventually ran out of fuel, and when he restored the normal price, an economic crisis broke out. Inflation was well above 20 percent, prompting the head of the local central bank to openly criticize Fidesz’s economic policywhich had never happened to him before.
Inflation is being forcibly suppressed by the government. Everything in time
In Poland, we are much closer to Hungary than to the French. 20 percent the non-market gap between what should be and what is is a significant difference that affects the overall level of inflation in our country. mBank calculated that by as much as 1.6 percentage points. The scissors open especially for the inflation value in October, where instead of 8.6 percent. we will see something closer to 7%. This is the rate of decline in inflation (CPI, i.e. the consumer inflation rate we deal with in stores), which will be an incentive for further cuts in interest rates. However, this value is false. Fake. Corrupted by political need.
By lowering fuel prices, according to Polityka Insight, Orlen can use emergency reserves, which we have for 90 days and which we activate in the event of disasters such as war. The Ministry of Climate denies that such practice takes place. Nevertheless, there are already voices saying that Daniel Obajtek’s conduct before the elections may violate the Act on Strategic Reserves and de facto be detrimental to the company. And there are already prosecutorial charges for this.
And so we will be floating in fuel clouds until October 15. Although the head of Orlen himself warned that artificially lowering prices may result in shortages at border gas stations, now he wants to work for PiS, because his entire career hangs on PiS. So he does it in his own interest. His appanages, his salary and power over the largest concern in the region. And according to our information, the Czechs are banging doors and windows on border stations, buying up all the fuel. Orlen’s moves are therefore a time bomb.
Regardless, the government will show in the coming weeks that it is keeping an eye on the decline in inflation and taking care of our pockets. Fuels affect prices throughout the economy. The cheaper it is at gas stations, the lower the costs incurred by entrepreneurs.
However, there is no point in fooling yourself. After the elections, Orlen will have to raise prices to market rates to restore market balance and rebuild stocks. When it comes to fuels, one would like to say: “hold on a moment.” The increases may be steeper and higher than if Orlen had not performed political miracles on the pylon.
What next with prices in the country? We will have to pay for government promotions
However, the government does not stop at fuel and works in packages. Inflation is also to be artificially suppressed by retroactive reductions in electricity prices (about 0.5 percentage points less than the CPI) or free medicines for specific groups of patients. The Central Statistical Office will dutifully include all these “government promotions” in the monthly inflation data. To be clear, the office even issued a statement on this matter. The entire state and all its offices are to work for our prosperity.
“The government is once again putting its foot down in the fight against inflation in conditions where, despite the decline, the high core inflation of 10% remains in Poland, and In its latest Economic Outlook, the OECD draws attention to the global challenges related to it. – warns Confederation Leviathan.
You, the reader, must know that there is no such thing as a “free lunch” in the economy. It is impossible to manually control economic processes without causing various bulges, distortions and problems in other places. And so Orlen’s moves are already causing problems, for example on the wholesale market, among others. diesel. Energy prices will probably return to normal next year. VAT on food will also eventually have to be restored to the old rates. Any negative effects of the Polish People’s Republic’s United Right approach to economics will be postponed in time, but will not disappear.
Poland has the highest inflation in Europe
According to many renowned organizations, in 2024 Poland may have the highest inflation in Europe. This is a real bill that we will have to pay. Every day he will eat up our savings, drain our wallets, and reduce wage increases.
Goldman Sachs wrote a few weeks ago that regardless of the election results, after the Poles’ vote, the NBP will start acting as it should and will no longer be so willing to reduce rates. He won’t have to, anyway. Politically, he will fulfill Nowogrodzka’s expectations. For now, however, Prof. Glapiński must clean up after himself and intervene verbally in the market, because our currency is being hit after blow and cannot recover from the incomprehensible rate cut at the beginning of September. The weak zloty is another contributing factor to higher inflation next year.
That is why there is no shortage of economists who go even further and point out that price increases may even accelerate at the end of next year, which will force the Monetary Policy Council to increase the cost of money on the Vistula. This would cause another blow to borrowers. And we would find ourselves between a rock and a hard place again. On the one hand, they are oppressed by rising loan installments, and on the other hand, by constant price increases in stores.
But this is the future. Politicians hope that we won’t bother with it. For now, we should be happy and thank the ruling party for all these gifts. Preferably at the ballot box. However, the economy will take care of itself and send us an invoice for it. Each of us will get it, without exception. It will arrive just after October 15.
Damian Szymański, deputy head and journalist of money.pl
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