The Government and international creditors reached an agreement in principle to close the debt restructuring. At the moment there was no official statement but market reaction with jumps of more than 10 percent In the price of the shares, it anticipates the closing of the negotiations to make the successful exchange of the bonds under foreign law.
The monetary differences between what the economic team offered in the last amendment sent to the United States Securities Commission and what the bondholders asked for was less than 3 dollars of recovery value. For investment funds, this was an insignificant difference that did not justify advancing in a default lawsuit against Argentina. For the country, as the minister was in charge of remarking in his interview with Página / 12, it could imply billions.
Among the market operators they assured that it was irrational that the bondholders grouped in Ad Hoc, Exchange and ACC did not accept Argentina’s proposal, which in recent months offered significant improvements over the initial offer to reach an agreement. As in any negotiation, the final tug is always difficult, even if it involves fewer concessions on both sides than those already made.
Hence it is at this point that the positions harden before the handshake. Likewise, until it is signed, an agreement does not exist. You don’t have to go far to find examples. “Learn from Ecuador,” the bondholders’ spokespersons demanded of the government, referring to the swift agreement that Lenin Moreno had supposedly reached with his creditors, thanks to his conciliatory spirit with the claims of others. Two funds appeared that did not endorse what was sustained by BlackRock, the negotiation was suspended and the country risk of Ecuador exceeded that of Argentina.
Página / 12 reported yesterday that Guzmán spoke every day with BlackRock emissaries, which made it clear that beyond the pro-credit crunch of most of the media, threatening hell if he did not unconditionally yield to all the claims for the funds , the possibility of a last approach that sealed the agreement was latent.
Although the real conditions of the Argentine economy do not change, hit doubly by the calamitous macrista mismanagement and the pandemic, the possibilities of successfully ending the negotiation will serve to oxygenate the media pressures that seek to blur the role of the State, and in particular of the government Alberto Fernández, in the management of economic news. A first effect will surely be noticed in the exchange market, which surely, if the agreement is closed, will suffer less pressure in the coming days.
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