Where the pandemic will lead there variante Omicron? How dangerous is it? How effective will vaccines (and especially i booster) to contain it? Science is busy day and night to find answers, clues and solutions to stem the overwhelming wave that is spreading in various parts of the world. Match from South Africa, at least in the media, the discovery of its peculiarities has become a race against time. Where it will take us is not known yet, but the transmission speed shows how very soon it will be prevalent throughout Europe and, probably, also in the rest of the planet. The first news arrives on the effectiveness of vaccines: two doses struggle to protect us, my he booster seems to be able to restore that shield we need. On the danger, however, the debate is open. The studio in Hong Kong that so much has done in recent days seems to show a higher impact on the bronchi (where the virus replicates 70 times more than the original variants) compared to the lungs (where it seems to affect 10 times less). A detail that may have actually made the disease less aggressive.
Omicron, symptoms different from the classic “triad”
What comes from the Great Britain, struggling with a monstrous increase in cases (only yesterday 90 thousand infections were touched in 24 hours), shows how to diverge from the past months, those of Alpha and Delta, are the symptoms. Tim Spector, chief scientist of the Zoe app – who through his studies tracks Covid symptoms in the country – said that most infected people no longer suffer from the classic “triad” of persistent cough, fever and loss of smell and taste. His team has yet to collect “accurate data” on Omicron’s symptoms, but initial results suggest they are very different from Delta, presenting milder and more cold-like patterns than previous variants. «In principle – said Professor Spector – what we are seeing now is that most of the people who test positive for the molecular swab actually have cold-like symptoms and do not have the classic triad that we have used previously. In fact, a milder symptomatic condition has emerged which to many people looks like a severe cold ».
This looks like the fastest method to detect when big surges in infections occur without waiting days for PCR tests to get reported – esp important given the doubling time of 2-3 days https://t.co/tzMxUr5DLt
— Tim Spector (@timspector) December 16, 2021
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Don’t underestimate mild symptoms
A good news? To read it so certainly, but which hides a problem that could instead fuel the transmission of the virus in the population. “People can no longer wait to suffer from loss of taste and smell, or persistent cough, to take a tampon. It is essential not to underestimate symptoms such as the common cold, or a simple headache, because more than 50% of people who present themselves without the classic symptoms of Covid, still test positive “.
His team has so far only looked at about 1,000 cases of Omicron, but the new variant appears to produce a “fairly mild” disease, according to reports. Professor Spector said that ‘almost all of them got better after about five days’. However, he warned that “many of the people who are getting infections in London right now are younger and therefore not among the people most at risk of ending up in hospital.”
Data from Guateng (South Africa)
A reasonable expectation that vaccines will offer protection against serious disease, especially after the booster, is good news. The other good news is the possibility that Omicron infection will lead to a less severe disease all round. There is some evidence of this from Gauteng, the South African province where the variant is widespread. Discovery Health data suggests that adults who have contracted Omicron have a 29% lower risk of hospitalization than seen in the first wave of Covid-19 that hit the country in mid-2020. end up in intensive care is much lower than in previous waves and there are also fewer patients in ordinary wards who need supplemental oxygen. Angelique Coetzee of the South African Medical Association, who was one of the first to sound the alarm about Omicron, has consistently argued that it’s a milder variant.
Bronchi and lungs, less severe but faster
Returning to the Hong Kong study of greater virus replication in the bronchi than in the lungs, scientists are skeptical of what it might determine. This finding could somehow explain a lower incidence of serious disease as the infection in the lungs does more damage than the bronchi. But increased replication in the respiratory tract could increase transmissibility, kind of like we’ve been seeing in recent weeks. The ability to enter and reproduce in the lining of the airways could make it easier for the virus to open the door to anyone who is exposed at the time.
