Since yesterday there is a general ban for European countries to import diesel from Russia. Previously, the import of crude oil from Russia was already halted, but whether it has any effect is still the question, according to sanctions lawyer Heleen over de Linden.
“Of course we hope every time that Putin finally gives up on that war,” said Over de Linden, who also specializes in the European Union’s sanctions against Russia. ‘But that’s not going to happen. However, this is a useful measure.’
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The diesel ban is the second part of the oil embargo as agreed by the European Union. Over de Linden emphasizes that oil is of great importance to Russia, and the embargo will therefore be experienced as very annoying.
Diesel
The Russians will find the diesel ban all the more annoying, thinks Over de Linden. “We started with the ban on unrefined oil on December 5, and now it includes refined oil,” she says. “Together, that is a huge source of income that the Russians are missing out on.”
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Over de Linden is supported by energy expert Lucia van Geuns of the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies. She argues that the dent in Russia’s income is a direct result of the import ban. ‘And it’s not just the import ban that has an effect on Russia’s income,’ says Van Geuns. “The price cap imposed by the G7 and Australia is also having an effect, meaning that the amount of profit Russia makes from exporting oil and derivatives is well below what the market would otherwise pay for it.”
17 percent
A Finnish think tank calculated that in January alone Russia has 17 percent less income from the oil sector compared to December. ‘All in all, it has an impact’, continues Van Geuns. She also emphasizes that Russia still earns a lot of money from oil exports – 640 million euros a day. “But that is much less than in the first half of 2022. Then it was more than 1,000 million euros per day.”
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Van Geuns therefore dares to conclude that the EU’s oil sanctions actually have an effect on Russia. ‘Initially I was less optimistic about it, but the price cap in particular is a problem. Russians still earn from exports, but just much less.’
