as expected "Goldman Sachs" Oil prices have risen again above $100 a barrel this year, and in 2024 the world may face a serious supply crisis as spare production capacity is exhausted.
For his part, the director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, expected to restore an alliance "OPEC+" Considering oil production during the coming months in the event of a significant increase in Chinese demand for oil.
But what if it was an alliance "OPEC+" Unable to bridge this gap?
The International Energy Agency estimates that the world will need about 31.4 million barrels per day of oil from OPEC members in the last quarter of the year.
But the problem here is that this number is about one million barrels per day higher than the levels these countries were producing in April 2020 when there was no agreement to cut production!
Russian oil production will add fuel to the fire. Expectations indicate that this production will decline by about 400,000 to 1.5 million barrels per day during this year.
Here the equation will be as follows; Significant growth in demand is matched by weakness in supply, which he warned about "Goldman Sachs" Who talked about that the world is facing the danger of running out of excess production capacity by 2024, meaning that there will be no spare capacity to meet any additional growth in demand.
In the end, if the expectations are correct, the oil markets will be facing a crisis that is no less severe than what it witnessed in the past, and perhaps even greater.
Head of commodity strategy "Saxo Bank"Ole Hansen, said during this week’s episode of the show "Energy world" on screen "Sky News Arabia"So far, the markets are the main fuel for the increase in oil prices, especially due to the increase in demand from China, which pushed prices back to the $80 per barrel range over the past two weeks.
Hansen believes that oil prices will remain below the level of $90 a barrel during the first half of this year, to exceed it during the second half.
And about the report "Goldman Sachs"Hansen believes that the markets will face great challenges with regard to oil, especially with the decline in investments in the energy sector, which means that the markets will move at very narrow levels, in light of other factors represented in the speed of the transition to green energy and the level of economic activity around the world.
Hansen was not optimistic about oil prices, as he said that the current price levels will remain familiar in the coming periods and may continue for years.
Regarding the performance of precious metals during the current year, the Head of Commodities Strategy said "Saxo Bank"The bank maintains a positive outlook on gold price movements in 2023, particularly when markets begin to question the ability of central banks to return inflation to target levels.
For example, according to Hansen, inflation in the United States was expected to decline to levels below 2.5 percent over the long term. "But now it may end at levels around 3 to 4 percent"according to his expression.
And gold, according to Hansen, will be the most fortunate precious metal during 2023, as stock markets may face difficulties in achieving gains with the persistence of inflation, and the gradual decline of the dollar will support the prices of the yellow metal.
Copper came in second place among the precious metals, which Hansen expected to rise more than the metal’s rise in 2022.
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One of the factors that may ignite this storm is the growth of Chinese demand that exceeds expectations. Goldman Sachs raised its expectations for demand growth in China, indicating that this demand may grow by more than one million barrels per day by the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs also expected oil prices to rise again above $100 a barrel this year, and in 2024 the world may face a serious supply crisis as excess production capacity is exhausted.
For his part, Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol expected that the “OPEC +” alliance would reconsider oil production in the coming months in the event of a significant increase in Chinese demand for oil.
But what if the “OPEC +” alliance is unable to bridge this gap?
The International Energy Agency estimates that the world will need about 31.4 million barrels per day of oil from OPEC members in the last quarter of the year.
But the problem here is that this number is about one million barrels per day higher than the levels these countries were producing in April 2020 when there was no agreement to cut production!
Russian oil production will add fuel to the fire. Expectations indicate that this production will decline by about 400,000 to 1.5 million barrels per day during this year.
Here the equation will be as follows; Significant growth in demand is offset by weakness in supply, which is what Goldman Sachs warned about, who said that the world faces the danger of running out of excess production capacity by 2024, meaning that there will be no spare capacity to meet any additional growth in demand.
In the end, if the expectations are correct, the oil markets will be facing a crisis that is no less severe than what it witnessed in the past, and perhaps even greater.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said during this week’s episode of “Energy World” on Sky News Arabia that the markets have so far been the main fuel for the increase in oil prices, especially due to the increase in demand from China. Pushing prices back to the range of $80 a barrel over the past two weeks.
Hansen believes that oil prices will remain below the level of $90 a barrel during the first half of this year, to exceed it during the second half.
Regarding the “Goldman Sachs” report, Hansen believes that the markets will face great challenges with regard to oil, especially with the decline in investments in the energy sector, which means that the markets will move at very narrow levels, in light of other factors represented in the speed of the transition to green energy and the level of economic activity around the world.
Hansen was not optimistic about oil prices, as he said that the current price levels will remain familiar in the coming periods and may continue for years.
Regarding the performance of precious metals during the current year, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said that the bank maintains a positive view of gold price movements in 2023, specifically when markets begin to question the ability of central banks to return inflation to target levels.
For example, according to Hansen, inflation in the United States was expected to decline to levels below 2.5 percent in the long term, “but now it may end at levels around 3 to 4 percent,” as he put it.
And gold, according to Hansen, will be the most fortunate precious metal during 2023, as stock markets may face difficulties in achieving gains with the persistence of inflation, and the gradual decline of the dollar will support the prices of the yellow metal.
Copper came in second place among the precious metals, which Hansen expected to rise more than the metal’s rise in 2022.
