NEW YORK — New York City is reassessing its COVID alert system amid another pandemic wave that, unlike others, hasn’t seen elevated positivity rates coupled with significant increases in hospitalizations, health commissioner says .
New York City Department of Mental Health and Hygiene Commissioner Dr. Ashwin Vasan referenced the wave Thursday afternoon. A vague message now appearing on the health department’s website confirms that the alert system, which debuted when Mayor Eric Adams took office earlier this year, is under review.
City officials said to check back in the coming weeks for updates.
“We remain committed to transparency and will continue to share COVID-19 data on our website,” the message read.
The city’s COVID alert system relies on the same critical indicators — rolling rates of new cases and hospital admissions, as well as the ratio of staffed COVID inpatient beds — to inform its decision-making. The alert levels are strictly intended to inform guidance on the use of masks and other COVID protocols. The commands are not applied automatically.
The abrupt change comes as citywide positivity rates climb back to late-January levels, and as top doctors warn of a sixth pandemic wave fueled by the “worst version” of the Omicron variant yet. it may be imminent.
New York City officials just downgraded the COVID alert level to medium on June 21 after a month or so at high. All five boroughs also earned a high-risk designation from the CDC, according to that agency’s system, during the better half of May, but the situation had vastly improved through June, so far.
While lower testing rates may skew positivity numbers, citywide transmission levels increased by about 19% between June 20 and June 27, indicating increased viral spread. That percentage change is significantly up from earlier this week.
To be sure, the number of people actually getting tested is at multi-month lows, skewing the positivity rate. But citywide transmission rates are up about 6% in the last week alone, pointing to a legitimate increase in the spread of the virus.
In parts of Manhattan, positivity rates are nearly 17% now, while they are over 20% in eastern parts of Queens. And New York City has the highest mobile new case rate (37 per 100,000) of all 10 regions in the state, with only Long Island coming in second with a rate of 34 new cases per 100,000 residents on an ongoing basis. .
This time there is no corresponding increase in COVID hospitalizations, city data shows. The seven-day average for new admissions is 81, according to health department data, and has been declining daily for the past week while cases have risen.
Dr. Jay Varma, an epidemiologist at Weill Cornell and former senior public health adviser to Mayor Bill de Blasio during the pandemic, noted earlier this week that infections appear to have stabilized at a high level in the city, rather than declining.
“The decline in reported #COVID19 cases in New York City has stopped. Reported cases are at a high level, meaning actual transmission is very high when taking into account the undercount of > 20 times. This is probably the start of a BA.5 wave,” Varma tweeted.
The BA.5 subvariant of the omicron variant of COVID-19 accounts for about a third of New York City cases being tested for variants, according to the most recent data, though experts agree the true proportion is probably much higher than reported.
The Omicron subvariant is causing concern around the world because it escapes immunity more easily and is also more easily transmitted. Researcher Eric Topol, in a widely cited publication this week, called BA.5 the “worst version” of Omicron seen yet.
The latest increases aren’t just relegated to New York City. The number of US counties at high risk for community spread of COVID skyrocketed in the CDC’s weekly update, with Friday’s map showing 60% more counties at high risk in just one week.
Nearly 20% of US counties, 627 in all, are now in the CDC’s high-risk area. Last week, about 12% (392, total) were considered high-risk for the spread of COVID. New York State added another county to the high-risk group: Suffolk County.
Suffolk and Nassau counties on Long Island are the only high-risk counties in New York state, according to the CDC, at this time. Four of New Jersey’s 21 counties are at high risk, reflecting no change from last week. All but three of Connecticut’s eight counties are low risk, while the rest are medium risk.
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