Where can we expect war?
Now in Europe, there is an almost ideal storm for bloody conflicts and wars, writes the Swedish edition of Dagens Industri.
Europe has a rich history of wars to move borders and entire countries. They are often associated with dreams of great power status. In recent years, ideas about Europe as a continent without borders have dominated, but the idea of old Europe is still alive. Dreams of bygone times flourish today in Russia, Turkey and the Balkans.
Tensions are growing, conflicts are brewing, and the war in Europe is becoming an increasingly likely cause for concern, says Swedish newspaper Dagens Industri. And where can it start?
Serbia does not recognize Kosovo and demands the inclusion of its territories in its composition. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, Serb representative in the tripartite Presidium (a three-member supreme executive body similar to the head of state), denies the genocide in Srebrenica. He has gone so far that he even claims that the recently adopted law denying genocide in Bosnia should mean the split of the country and the annexation of the Republic of Srpska entity to Serbia.
This is reminiscent of the pre-war rhetoric of the 1980s. For 20 years now, the guns have gone silent on the war-torn Balkan Peninsula – but, as it turns out, history has taught little to people about avoiding conflicts in the future.
Turkey has repeatedly violated the air and sea borders of Cyprus and Greece.
Ankara occupied a third of Cyprus in 1974 and is increasingly trying to push the principle of two states for the two peoples of the island, although Turkey is the only country in the world that recognizes the state formation of Northern Cyprus.
Turkey also supported the military actions of Azerbaijan against Armenia in the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Belarus is gradually moving towards uniting with Russia. Moscow is increasingly accused of preparing a new offensive against Ukraine. Putin denies Ukrainian independence and assures that Ukrainians and Russians have always been one.
When the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is completed, which will happen very soon, Ukraine will lose its geopolitical advantage – its territory will no longer be needed for Russian gas supplies to Europe.
“The love of the world and the belief that this feeling is inherent in everyone has made us blind. We do not notice those who do not hesitate to use force on the way to their own political goals. If Europe is engulfed in flames, then everyone will be in danger, ”sums up Dagens Industri.