North Korea’s Second Satellite Launch: Risks and Possibilities

North Korea mentioned “second quick launch”
If you shoot in a hurry, ‘possibility of failure’
Shooting it slowly ‘disrupted the existing plan’
If it’s an ‘engine’ problem, it could take months.

Your heart will be in a hurry and your head will be complicated. This is the story of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. This is because ‘Military Reconnaissance Satellite Unit 1’, an ambitious work prepared for two and a half years, plunged into the cold West Sea immediately after launch on the 31st of last month. With the fall, Chairman Kim’s future plans were also twisted.

Chairman Kim, who has lost face, would like to launch the rocket again as soon as possible. On the other hand, the minds of scientists who can be severely reprimanded if they fail again are different. You seem to think that you should launch a second launch after careful investigation and maintenance.

When will Chairman Kim press the launch button again? Also, what kind of pressure tactics will the international community, which has illegally defined North Korea’s ‘satellite launch’, use? We have summarized the scenario of North Korea’s second satellite launch, which has become more complicated.

① The 2nd launch card in June, ‘Touching’… “August-September Phase Transformation Goal”

Experts who believe that North Korea will launch a second launch in June cite the ‘rainy season’ and the ‘Hangzhou Asian Games’ as key reasons. It means that the weather and sporting events will rush Chairman Kim’s mind. In North Korea, the rainy season usually starts in early July, and the weather is inclement for a month.

On the 31st of last month, North Korea released the launch of the Chollima Type 1 satellite carrier rocket carrying its first military reconnaissance satellite through the Korean Central News Agency. The rocket is believed to have been launched from a new launch site in Dongchang-ri, Cheolsan-gun, North Pyongan Province, North Korea. Korean Central News Agency Yonhap News

It has been six times that North Korea has officially announced that it has launched an artificial satellite since ‘Kwangmyongsong-1’ in 1998. None of these were fired in July. However, our military believes that North Korea unofficially launched a satellite in July 2006, and we believe that this attempt has failed.

Jang Yeong-geun, director of the Missile Center at the Korea Institute for National Strategy, said, “If a rocket is launched in cloudy weather with electricity (lightning), the possibility of failure increases due to the occurrence of static electricity.” “he said. There is no reason to take the risk of launching a satellite in an unstable atmosphere.

The Asian Games to be held in Hangzhou, China in September also strengthen the possibility of an early relaunch. North Korea has locked its borders and disappeared from the international stage for the past three years when Corona 19 was prevalent. Such North Korea is expected to send a large team of athletes and cheering squad to the Asian Games in Hangzhou in September. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, “After hosting military events such as a satellite launch in June and a large-scale military parade in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the Victory Day in July, we have participated in international sports events since August and strengthened exchanges and cooperation with international organizations or China and Russia. It would be North Korea’s plan to try to change the situation.” To meet this schedule, it is calculated that the satellite must be launched within this month. In particular, there is a prediction that North Korea’s ballistic missile technology will be able to be quickly supplemented because it has already been verified.

On February 9, 2018, North Korean cheerleaders cheer with the Korean Peninsula flag during the opening ceremony held at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Stadium in Gangwon Province. Pyeongchang = Reporter Kim Joo-young

②”If it’s an engine problem, it will take 4 to 6 months”… ‘Attracting attention’ by launching an ICBM

However, relaunching a satellite may not be as easy as you think. This is because the engine, the ‘heart’ of the rocket, is likely to have a problem. North Korea’s National Space Development Agency admitted immediately after the first launch failure and explained, “It lost propulsion due to an abnormal start (ignition) of the second stage engine (engine) and crashed into the West Sea.” In addition, it was said that the reliability and stability of the new engine were reduced as the cause of the accident. Kim Dong-yeop, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, “If you fail to this extent, it will take at least 4 to 6 months to make up for it.” No matter how good North Korea is at ‘speed war’, it is difficult to find the cause of failure and fix it within a few weeks. In fact, in April 2012, North Korea shot down the ‘Kwangmyongsong 3’ satellite and failed to enter orbit. It wasn’t until December, eight months later, that we were able to launch again. If it is too hasty and even the second launch fails, the prestige of Chairman Kim who pushed it will inevitably fall to the floor.

If it is difficult to launch a second launch right away, North Korea can release another tile one by one until it is ready. It is expected that it will try to grab the attention of the international community with military provocations. North Korea’s last armed provocation was the test launch of the Hwasong-18 on April 13. It’s been almost two months already. Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said, “The Hwasong-18 model is still in the development stage, so the possibility of additional tests is open.” .

③The international community without a decent North Korea card… “Possibility of Korea-US-Japan joint exercises in the West Sea”

No matter which scenario Chairman Kim chooses, tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula will inevitably rise. Neither the Korean government nor the international community will stand by. South Korean Ambassador to the US Cho Hyun-dong said on the 31st of last month (local time), “North Korea said it would launch a second launch, but any launch will pay a price.” This is because all launches by North Korea using ballistic missile technology are in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

The ROK-US Navy and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Aegis destroyer are conducting a ROK-US-Japan maritime missile defense exercise to respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats in the high seas of the East Sea on April 17. provided by the navy

However, it is a concern that there is no appropriate countermeasure card that will make North Korea difficult other than ‘word confrontation’. First of all, the Security Council has lost its ability to pressure North Korea in the confrontation between Korea, the U.S. and Japan, and North Korea, China, and Russia. This is because China and Russia, which are permanent members of the Security Council, have become more blatant in covering North Korea. In fact, even though North Korea has continued armed provocations, such as test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), a response at the Security Council level has seldom come out.

In the end, there is no other way but to unite Korea, the U.S. and Japan to counter North Korean provocations. In fact, the defense ministers of the three countries met on the occasion of the Asian Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore on the 3rd and condemned North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite. In addition, the three countries decided to operate a system to share North Korean missile warning information in real time within the year. Professor Park predicted, “There is a high possibility that Korea, the US and Japan will respond with high-level joint exercises in the West Sea.”

Yugeun reporter [email protected]