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BI: Associate Professor Alexander Sønderland Skjønberg does not think the strike is over immediately. Photo: Kyrre Lien
Alexander Sønderland Skjønberg, associate professor at BI, also says it is difficult to see a clear end to the conflict:
– They disagree on a very fundamental question. How they will solve this is difficult to imagine. But one of the parties is going to give in at some point.
– It is not often that you have such questions in a strike. It’s not just a question of kroner and øre.
“Vague agreement” can be a solution
– How long can this last?
– It is so difficult to say because I do not know where they stand in the negotiations, but I guess maybe a week’s time.
He emphasizes that strikes often last for several weeks, but that the parties here will try to reunite because the consequences are so dramatic:
– When it hits so hard, I would guess that it happens faster than otherwise. Now we are in the middle of the joint holiday. It is also not often that you see a strike in a company that goes so badly, and it will probably affect the duration.
The pilots say they are willing to strike for a long time if necessary.
The previous SAS pilot strike in 2019 lasted for 6 days.
Skjønberg says that the typical thing when you have first chosen to go on strike is that it often gets a little stuck.
– It is rare to talk about just a few days. Once they have gone out so hard, it is difficult to imagine that one will make contact immediately. The mediator can get involved again, but it is not common within a short time. Here I think it will take at least a few days before they get pressure from someone else. It depends a bit who wins in public, then at some point they have to find their way back.
Skjønberg emphasizes that he does not know what has been put on the table in negotiations, but that a possible compromise between the parties may be that they agree to investigate further:
– It is conceivable that one will investigate it and have a kind of vague agreement on what the solution will be in the future. But it is a bit difficult when the requirement is how sas should organize the business.
For SAS, the strike is coming worst possible time because summer traffic is the most important season.
SAS chief Anko van der Werff var clearly frustrated when he commented on the strike earlier Monday. He is completely dependent on raising more capital, and is worried about what a strike in the middle of the high season for air traffic may mean for the company’s future.
– How in the world is this going to help? he asked.
Goes to bankruptcy
Aircraft analyst Jacobsen believes the company can quickly go bankrupt:
– Yes, and it will come on very quickly. SAS had around NOK 8 billion in liquidity on 30 April, and half of it will be gone within two weeks. It is very expensive with parked planes and that no one orders new tickets.
He estimates that the strike will cost around 100 million Swedish kroner a day.
That SAS does not have many weeks left if the strike continues, aviation analyst Espen Andersen at BI agrees:
– Either the pilots give up, SAS gives up, otherwise the company goes conc.
– If it lasts for a longer period of time, SAS conc. And it does not take very long, I think. SAS depends on trust in the market, so if you start flying again and you do not get credit for fuel, you can not fly.
– Difficult to understand the pilots
– It is not a good situation at all. It is very difficult to understand the pilots. I think they have difficulty understanding what difficulties the company is in and that they think the state, for example the Danish, will come in and save.
Swedish state and Danish have just over 21 each, the rest are smaller investors.
Press manager at SAS, Tonje Sund, tells VG that they do not want to speculate when the company runs out of money, but emphasizes that a strike in the high season is dramatic for the company.
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