New Taiwan dollarThe devaluation pressure has increased significantly, which could contribute to the inflationary pressure. According to the forecasts of the central bank,New Taiwan dollarIf the dollar depreciates to 30 yuan, this year’s CPI annual growth rate is estimated to rise from 0.16 to 0.33 percentage points and CPI will depreciate to 31.92 yuan in the fourth quarter and CPI is still within the controllable range.
The central bank said domestic inflation is mainly caused by the increase in international commodities, which is “imported inflation”.New Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate against the US dollar in the first eight months of the year depreciated by 3.15% compared to the same period of the previous year, makingNew Taiwan dollarThe annual growth rate of import denominated prices rose to 17.70%, an increase of 3.85 percentage points.
The central bank said franklyNew Taiwan dollarThe devaluation will increase domestic imported inflationary pressure, but inflationary pressure is still within the controllable range.New Taiwan dollarIt depreciated by 3.15% over the same period last year and the contribution to the annual CPI increase is estimated to be around 0.10 ~ 0.19 percentage points, but the impact is relatively limited.
According to central bank estimates, it is assumed thatNew Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate has depreciated from the average price of 28.02 yuan last year to the average price of 29.5 yuan this year. This year’s CPI annual growth rate is estimated to increase by 0.12-0.25 percentage points. If it is further depreciated to 30 yuan. , it is estimated that it will increase by 0.16-0.33 percentage points.
Take the first 8 months of this yearNew Taiwan dollarComputed against the US dollar average exchange price of 29.04 yuan, if the average annual price depreciates to 29.5 yuan, the average September-December price is 30.42 yuan; if it depreciates to 30 yuan, the average price from September to December is 31.92 yuan, in other words,New Taiwan dollarComing down to 31.92 yuan, inflation is still under control.
forNew Taiwan dollarExchange rate, Central Bank President Yang Jinlong pointed out that the exchange rate is determined by market supply and demand.New Taiwan dollarThe market believes that the US dollar’s appreciation at 27 yuan is normal, but it has now depreciated to 31 yuan, which everyone also thinks is normal.