Almost a month after China announced the outbreak of a new pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, the disease has already spread to most of the country’s provinces, with cases also reported in several countries. In the last week, after a period of about 15 days in which the outbreak appeared to have been contained in its initial focus, new cases began to multiply and spread across the country.
At this point, it is known that pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus, whose genome already has a first published version. Chinese authorities have, however, taken unprecedented steps to try to halt the spread of the epidemic, but there are many uncertainties. This is what is known – and what remains to be known.
Numbers and disease progression
In the past week, the numbers successively announced by Chinese health officials have always been rapidly out of date. This Sunday, the confirmed cases amount to around 2000 in the country, while the death toll stands at 56. On Saturday 688 new infections were identified and 15 more deaths were reported. The Chinese authorities admit that there are 324 seriously ill patients at this time. Positive, on the other hand, is the confirmed number of 49 people who have overcome the infection and have already been discharged.
According to the country’s health authorities, this is the “most critical” moment to slow the progression of the disease and manage to contain it. However, they warn, the epidemic seems to be accelerating and the contagion is becoming faster.
“There are signs that their transmission is increasing, and the sources of contagion [as pessoas infetadas ainda sem sintomas da doença] have made it difficult to control and prevent the disease, “said Ma Xiaowei, chairman of the National Health Commission of China, said on Sunday.
Cases in China and 14 more countries and territories
The overwhelming majority of cases occur in China – there are around 2000 at this time -, where all the deaths registered so far have also occurred. Most of the country’s provinces have confirmed cases, escaping only the northernmost regions.
Outside China, confirmed cases amount to 38 and occurred in Macau and Hong Kong, with cases of infection also confirmed in Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, United States, Singapore, Vietnam, Nepal, Malaysia, France, Australia and Canada.
All cases reported outside of China are linked to recent visits to the city of Wuhan. Portugal announced on Saturday the first suspected case of the new pneumonia, by a traveler also from Wuhan, but laboratory tests, the results of which were known this Sunday morning, have not confirmed the disease.
A new coronavirus at the origin of the disease
The pneumonia that emerged in the Chinese city of Wuhan about a month ago is caused by a new coronavirus, previously unknown to science, which scientists named 2019-nCoV and which is related to the one that in 2002 and 2003 caused a global epidemic of a acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) with a global balance of 774 fatalities in more than eight thousand cases.
The origin of the coronavirus, so named because of its shape, which resembles a crown, is still unknown. The outbreak is known to have emerged from a market selling fresh fish and seafood and other live animals, including wild species such as bats and snakes.
Most likely, the original source of the pathogen is one of the wild species, similar to what happened in the SARS epidemic, in which the reservoir of the respective coronavirus, as it turned out, was the civet, a wild cat. At this point, however, researchers have not yet been able to determine which animal the new coronavirus comes from, which has passed the species barrier and started to infect humans.
Symptoms of the disease and uncertainties about contagion
Symptoms associated with the infection caused by the new coronavirus are more severe than the flu and include fever, pain, malaise and breathing difficulties, including shortness of breath.
On Sunday, the chairman of the National Health Commission, Ma Xiaowei, said that “the capacity for the spread of the virus has been strengthened”, indicating that it has already undergone mutations since it began to infect humans.
The disease incubation period, which seems to be on average 14 days, is another unfavorable factor, since patients who still have no symptoms, therefore unaware of their condition, are a source of contagion for other people. Ma Xiaowei said on purpose that this has made it difficult to control the disease, admitting that the new coronavirus is not as dangerous as SARS, but it is more contagious.
Unprecedented measures in China
Over the past week, when it became clear that the outbreak had not been contained in the origin and dispersed cases began to emerge in different provinces of the country, which in turn multiplied exponentially with each new day, the Chinese authorities were taking measures increasingly tight, successively isolating several cities – there are now 17, affecting around 52 million people -, canceling lunar new year celebrations, closing monuments and amusement parks, blocking transport and roads and indefinitely postponing the resumption of classes in quarantined cities.
Beijing, Shanghai, Xi’an and Tianjin canceled all long-distance transport to and from their respective cities. In the provinces of Guandong and in the main cities of the affected regions, the use of a mask is mandatory.
Two new hospitals are under construction in Wuhan to treat these patients exclusively. One will open on February 3, the other will be operational the following week.
An unprecedented measure also taken this Sunday has to do with the wildlife trade, which as of today is temporarily banned across the country.
“Low risk” for the rest of the world
Although China is experiencing a medical emergency, the overall risk appears to be less worrying. The European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) considered on Sunday that the possibility of secondary transmission within the European Union (from cases arrived from outside) is low “as long as the prevention and control practices are complied with. infection control related to a possible imported case “.
Canada reported on Sunday its first case, that of a traveler from China. The United States announced that a third case of coronavirus was confirmed on Saturday and that it concerns a man who is in California and was in Wuhan. The first three cases in Europe were registered in France on Friday.
Control measures outside China
This week, the World Health Organization decided not to declare the new pneumonia a global medical emergency, recognizing, however, that it is a medical emergency in China and keeping open the possibility of making another decision in the future.
Numerous countries, including the United States and several in Asia, have in the meantime implemented temperature-tracking measures for travelers from the city of Wuhan.
The United States has also decided that it will withdraw its personnel and American citizens who are blocked in Wuhan.
Measures taken by Portugal
The Directorate-General for Health activated on Wednesday the protocols established for this type of situation, reinforcing the National Health Service with the Health 24 line, through the number 800242424, and the medical support line, for screening, in order to avoid that in case of eventual contagion people do not fill the health centers and the emergency rooms, with the Hospital de São João, in Porto, Curry Cabral and D. Estefânia, in Lisbon being on the alert.
The Portuguese government has indicated, however, that 20 Portuguese have been identified who are resident in Wuhan or who are visiting and are studying the possibility of removing them from that city, “if this is feasible under public health rules”.
The government on Sunday also issued a warning advising against “non-essential travel” to China, while the Portuguese Embassy in Beijing alerted Portuguese residents in China to the “very rapid evolution” of the new coronavirus in the country, pointing out the speed with which authorities are implementing quarantine measures.
“We underline that the evolution of the situation is very fast and that the decisions of the Chinese authorities to prevent the circulation of transport or to implement quarantine measures are not communicated in advance and have practically immediate application”, reads the note, broadcast through the official embassy website.
– .
