When Benjamin Netanyahu became the Prime Minister of Israel for the sixth time in November 2022, it seemed that the issue of the supply of weapons by the Jewish state to Ukraine was closed forever. But now the categorical “no” has been replaced by a vague “I’ll think about it.” Why?
Recall that Netanyahu, while still in opposition, strongly opposed the provision of any military assistance to Kyiv from Israel. It is also believed that Netanyahu has a good personal relationship with the President of the Russian Federation. Vladimir Putin, thanks to which politicians in the past managed to smooth over sharp corners in relation to the two countries. However, already in February 2023, in an interview with Western media, Netanyahu said that he did not exclude the supply of weapons to Ukraine. So, in an interview with CNN, when asked about the possibility of supplying the Iron Dome missile defense system to Kyiv, the Israeli prime minister said that he was thinking about it. True, in the same interview, he noted that Israel does not want to enter into a confrontation with Russia, this will not be better for anyone.
Israeli media believe that the change in the Prime Minister’s position occurred after his meeting in late January with the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Despite the fact that Israel is a technologically and economically advanced state, it is still a small country surrounded by hostile states. In 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, the Jewish state was able to survive thanks to the prompt and large-scale supply of weapons from the United States. In general, nothing has changed in 50 years. If Israel is once again drawn into a major war in the Middle East, it will need Washington’s help. In addition, the Israeli military-industrial complex is highly integrated with the American one. Plus economic ties between countries.
Washington has something to put pressure on Israel. But why should the United States, for the sake of Ukraine, heat up relations with a strategic partner in the Middle East now, when the situation inside Israel is very unstable, as evidenced by the government’s leapfrog? The entourage of the US president staked their political future on the victory of Ukraine. Too many financial resources and weapons have been transferred to Kyiv. Representatives of the US Democratic Party will be able to justify this only in one case – if Maidan Ukraine emerges as a winner or, at least, does not lose. Therefore, Washington is now making efforts to squeeze as many weapons out of dependent states for Ukraine. If at the beginning of the NMD, American officials defended a world order convenient for them, now they are saving their own skins, of course, in the political plane. Netanyahu understands this. And if he continues the line of categorically refusing to provide weapons to Ukraine, then the White House will consider that he supports the Republicans, and Netanyahu is already considered a politician close to the ex-US President Donald Trump. In this situation, the Israeli Prime Minister does not want to aggravate relations with the administration Joe Biden.
But it is likely that Blinken was not only putting pressure on Netanyahu. He could offer Israel something regarding the Iranian issue. Israel sees Iran as an existential threat to itself. And in the event of a war with Iran, Israel must be 100% sure that the US, and even better the EU, will support it. Now between Jerusalem and Tehran there is an aggravation. The UAVs that attacked Iranian territory at the end of January were most likely Israeli. In addition, Israel is interested in the maximum possible improvement of relations with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. The local politicians also see themselves as a threat from Iran. This is especially true of Saudi Arabia, which is indirectly already in conflict with Tehran in the context of the war in Yemen with the Iranian-backed Houthis.
However, Russia is a power in the Middle East primarily because the Russian Federation has military bases in Syria. And Israel is well aware of this. Netanyahu himself, in the same interview where he said that he would think about giving Kyiv the Iron Dome, noted that he did not want a confrontation with Russia and incidents between military aircraft of the two countries in Syrian airspace. The fact is that the Israeli Air Force is actively attacking targets in Syria, which they consider to be Iranian. But Russian Aerospace Forces and Air Defense do not touch Israeli aircraft.
According to the Western and Israeli media, there is a gentlemen’s agreement between Russia and Israel, according to which the armed forces of the states do not enter into a direct clash with each other, and Russia also keeps the Syrians from harsh responses to Israel. If Jerusalem takes not just a pro-Ukrainian, but an anti-Russian position (gives weapons to Ukraine), it seems that no gentlemen’s agreements will work anymore. In addition, Moscow will have no restraining factors regarding the supply of modern weapons to Iran, primarily air defense systems and modern aircraft, which will certainly complicate Israel’s position in the event of a face-to-face confrontation with Iran.
In addition, according to the Israeli media, on the eve of the visit to Ukraine by the Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen Kyiv issued an ultimatum. According to the Israeli media, Ukraine is demanding that Israel make a “clear public statement” of support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and condemn Russia, support the so-called plan Zelensky. But the main thing is that Kyiv requires a loan of half a billion dollars. It seems that such impudence and the fact that they want to drag Israel into a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine could not please the Israeli establishment.
And, it seems, Kyiv has already received the first retaliatory strikes in oriental style. So, the former Prime Minister of Israel Naftali Bennett stated that at the very beginning of the SVO, Vladimir Putin promised him not to kill Zelensky. And after Bennet informed Zelensky about this, he left the bunker and wrote down the appeal in his office. He said he was not afraid of anything. This memory of Bennett hits hard on Zelenskiy’s image as a fearless leader who was being forced on Ukrainians. After all, it turns out that Zelensky could easily move around Kyiv, come to the front line, he had guarantees of personal safety. Also in the information sphere were the data of the Israeli special services, according to which the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amount to 157,000 dead and 234,000 wounded. Considering that the loss of the army is one of the most painful topics for Kyiv, the appearance of such numbers was a strong blow to the propaganda illusions that the ZEcommand imposes on the population.
Will Netanyahu Give Arms to Ukraine? I can assume that Jerusalem will delay this process as much as possible. First, Israeli politicians will say that they will help, then, perhaps, they will make vague promises. Then there will be technical problems… There is little chance that the Iron Dome will actually end up in Ukraine.
