Maybe don’t make plans for Valentine’s Day 2046. There is a chance, although not very high, that the asteroid discovered by astronomers this year will hit the Earth. The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is monitoring this object as potentially dangerous. Due to its size, the collision would not have fatal consequences for all of humanity, it would be able to cause serious local damage.
Asteroid 2023 DW may cross the path of our planet in a few years. The chance of a collision is less than one percent, European Space Agency she still placed him on the risk list. She discovered this object in February this year and estimated that it has a one in 607 chance of hitting Earth.
His movement follows i NASA, which predicted the day when precipitation is most likely. There is a small chance that an asteroid will enter the Earth’s atmosphere between 2046 and 2054, but the highest risk falls on the very first year, namely February 14, 2046.
This date received one point out of ten on the so-called Turin scale, which means very little risk. But all other data have zero. “We are tracking the new asteroid 2023 DW, which has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2046. When new bodies are discovered, it often takes several weeks to reduce uncertainties and predict their orbits years ahead. Analysts will continue to monitor 2023 DW and update forecasts,” she said NASA on twitter.
It’s not very likely that this asteroid will actually spoil Valentine’s Day in 23 years, but it’s not out of the question. If the collision had actually occurred, the consequences would be, according to the popular science website IFL Science more similar to an atomic bomb explosion (but without the radiation) than the event that apparently caused the extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago.
Local damage
The estimated diameter of the asteroid is around 50 meters. It’s not exactly a tiny thing, if it hits a populated area it would cause extensive damage to buildings and lives. Fortunately, it is not big enough to wipe humanity off the face of the earth.
The 2023 DW object is roughly the same size as the one responsible for the Tunguska disaster in 1908. According to estimates, the 50-60 meter asteroid there flattened 80 million trees over an area of more than two thousand square kilometers, the website reminds Space.com. If a body of similar size were to explode over a city such as London, the devastation would be felt even in its more distant outskirts. Prague would be completely destroyed.
“An event of this magnitude over a large agglomeration was extremely dangerous. The blast shock wave would have uprooted trees and fences, broken windows, destroyed some roofs and possibly entire buildings. It probably wouldn’t have been enough to cause serious damage to very residential structures such as skyscrapers or bridges,” explains astrophysicist and professor at Imperial College London Gareth Collins.
According to the simulations, however, the Europeans can probably relax. According to astrophysics enthusiast Steven M. Tilley, the asteroid would likely land in the Pacific Ocean or North America if it collided with Earth. So if you want to spend Valentine’s Day in 2046 on a romantic vacation, avoid Hawaii to be safe.
I did another Monte Carlo simulation (Epoch 2046 Feb 14.5 – Gaussian “noise” 0.5) with 55 of 55 #2023DW observations form The MPC on Find_Ord out of 35415 virtual asteroids I had 274 virtual impactors ~00.77% Impact risk for 14-02-2046 Here is #asteroid risk corridor maps. pic.twitter.com/xzsBEzVVQi
— Steven M. Tilley (@StevearenoBR) March 4, 2023
TN.cz
