Most of the funds have already prepared a place in their portfolios for Allegro shares, so you should not expect any bluechip sales – says Bartłomiej Chył, director of the analysis team at NN Investment Partners TFI. He estimates Allegro’s share in the WIG20 index at around 6.2-6.4%, and at around 4.3-4.4% in the WIG index.
Allegro may enter the WIG20 index as part of an extraordinary revision of the index after the trading session on October 15, on the third trading day after the company’s debut on the stock exchange scheduled for October 12.
“According to my estimates, Allegro, including the additional stabilization option, will weigh around 6.2-6.4 percent in the WIG 20 and 4.3-4.4 percent in the WIG index. I expect the extraordinary revision of the WIG20. will take place after the third session, that is after the session on October 15, if the debut is on October 12. Allegro will most likely replace mBank in the index, “Biznes Chył told PAP.
“In my opinion, most investors have already prepared their portfolios for Allegro shares. If someone wanted to have a benchmark position, most of the sales have probably already taken place. This is especially visible when CD Projekt, Dino, LPP and CCC have been kept 2-3 weeks ago. I do not expect any significant sales of WIG20 companies now, “he added.
A few weeks ago, the analyst of Trigon DM Maciej Marcinowski estimated that CD Projekt, whose share is currently limited by the WSE to 15%, will suffer the least from Allegro’s entry to WIG20. On the day of the extraordinary correction, its share will fall below 15%, but at the next quarterly revision in December 2020, it will be raised again to the 15% limit. at the expense of other companies.
He assessed that for mBank leaving WIG 20 was negative information not only in the short term in terms of the supply of funds benchmarking to WIG20 (small scale), but also in the longer term due to the smaller scale of systematic demand from the PPK.
On September 14, Allegro announced its intention to conduct a public offering and debut on the WSE. On the same day, the LPP price fell by 3.6 percent, the CDR dropped by 3 percent, CCC was losing 1.4 percent, and PKN was losing 1.2 percent.
According to Marcinowski’s calculations from Trigon DM, Allegro will also meet the requirements for promotion to the MSCI and FTSE indices in an extraordinary adjustment. He estimated the demand from funds benchmarking against MSCI indices at approx. PLN 800 million, and from FTSE at approx. PLN 350 million.
Play is another candidate, after mBank, who may leave WIG20 as part of the regular December revision.
“If the tender offer for Play’s shares is successful, I see several companies that could potentially replace telecoms in WIG20 in the December revision. These are: Asseco Polska Amrest, Biomed Lublin, ING BSK, Grupa Kęty,” said Chył.
Piotr Jusiński of Ipopema Securities points out that Biomed Lublin will probably replace Playa among the largest WSE companies.
“In the event of an extraordinary revision, Play should be replaced by Biomed Lublin, the company ranked first on the reserve list announced during the last quarterly revision of the indices,” wrote Piotr Jusiński in an e-mail sent to PAP Biznes.
On September 21, Iliad announced a tender offer for 100 percent. of outstanding shares of Play Communications and agreed to the largest shareholders of the telecom regarding the purchase of shares giving 40.2 percent. votes at the General Meeting.
If the threshold of 95 percent is reached as a result of the tender offer the total number of shares in Playa, Iliad does not preclude compulsory buyout of shares belonging to minority shareholders and delisting. (PAP Biznes)
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