‘Mortality rate will drop sharply after first vaccinations, virus will not spread’

Given these statistics, it seems logical that vaccinating the oldest groups drastically reduces mortality. “But with vaccines you often see that the effectiveness varies by age group,” says Tostmann.

After all, more young and especially healthy people are taking part in the test phases. Especially at higher ages, people’s immune systems are a lot weaker. There is no data yet on how the 90 percent effectiveness, as claimed by the vaccine manufacturers, works out on a large scale per age category. According to the two experts, this should mainly be apparent from practice.

“Suppose that a vaccine is only effective for 50 percent of the residents of a nursing home. If the virus then spreads, half of the residents will still become ill,” says Rosendaal.

Double-edged sword

In order to contain the spread of the virus and to reduce hospital admission rates, he believes it is necessary to vaccinate slightly younger people as well. Such as the group of 50-70 year olds, in which relatively many corona patients are admitted.

“Then you get a double-edged sword: you vaccinate people who often end up in hospital and contribute to the spread, because they are active in society.” As far as distribution is concerned, it is not possible to start vaccinating young people quickly enough as far as Rosendaal is concerned.

But these groups are not yet next, as you can see below:

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