INSEE notes that the number of deaths between 1 and 23 March 2020 remains lower than those that occurred during the 2018 flu epidemic, which was particularly long.
The Côte-d’Or experienced 20% more deaths compared to 2019 over this period. Saône-et-Loire saw this number drop by 2%.
INSEE press release of April 3, 2020:
Number of deaths by department
Exceptionally, during the covid-19 pandemic, INSEE disseminated the number of deaths per day and by department. Deaths are recorded in the municipality where they took place (and not at the place of residence). The statistics disseminated are provisional (refer to the methodological note) and will be updated every week.
For each department, the following are available in the form of graphs, maps and files: the number of daily deaths accumulated since March 1, 2018, 2019 and 2020 until March 23 and the number of daily deaths transmitted electronically (municipalities that transmit the data electronically and not by paper, therefore faster) until March 27. Data for the Bouches-du-Rhône is not available after March 11 due to computer problems affecting the municipality of Marseille, which prevent it from transmitting death bulletins to INSEE.
The figures which are presented and commented below are provisional and will be revised in the coming weeks. The number of total deaths recorded between March 1 and 20, 2020 is thus revised compared to the broadcast last week, going from 26,950 to 27,850, i.e. a revision of + 3.3%, linked to new transmissions to the ‘INSEE death concerning this period.
At the national level, the number of total deaths recorded on April 2, 2020 and occurring between March 1 and 23, 2020 is now higher than that recorded over the same period in 2019: 40,684 deaths were recorded in 2020, including 39,707 for France excluding Bouches-du-Rhône compared to 39,141 in 2019 in France excluding Bouches-du-Rhône. However, this number remains even lower than the deaths recorded over the same period in 2018 (44,443 deaths in France outside Bouches-du-Rhône), the year when the seasonal flu was still virulent in March.
At the regional level, the Grand-Est and Île-de-France regions now have a total number of deaths, which occurred between March 1 and 23, more than 10% higher than that recorded for the same period in 2019 (respectively 19% and 11%); it is close to the number of deaths occurring during the same period in 2018. The number of deaths occurring between March 1 and 23, 2020 is also higher than that of 2019 in Corsica (+ 6%) or in Hauts-de- France (+ 5%), but is still below 2018 in these regions.
At the departmental level, four departments stand out with a large excess of mortality between March 1 and 23, 2020 compared to the same period in 2019: Haut-Rhin (+ 84%), Corse du Sud (+ 40%) , the Vosges (+ 33%) and Mayotte (+ 30%). However, it is not possible to systematically attribute this excess mortality to the covid-19 epidemic, particularly in departments where the number of deaths is relatively low and fluctuates from year to year.
This is for example the case of Mayotte. It is therefore not an estimate of the excess mortality linked to covid-19 which requires the mobilization of econometric models implemented by Public Health France.
Three other departments also have an excess of deaths of around 25% compared to 2019. These are Deux-Sèvres, Hauts-de-Seine and Oise. The excess death that appears in Deux-Sèvres in 2020 compared to 2019 took place at the beginning of March and is a priori unrelated to the covid-19 epidemic. Among the other departments with a number of deaths occurring between March 1 and 23, 2020 10% higher than that recorded over the same period in 2019, we can cite the Côte-d’Or (+ 20%), the Bas- Rhine (+ 19%), Moselle (+ 16%), Paris (+ 13%), Yvelines (+ 12%) and Val-de-Marne (+ 10%).
The number of deaths for which the data were transmitted electronically is more quickly known by INSEE. It is also provisional and will be revised in the coming weeks. Thus, the number of deaths occurring between March 1 and 20 and transmitted by dematerialized route is revised upward by + 5.3% compared to the figure published last week.
The number of these deaths occurring in France outside Bouches-du-Rhône between March 1 and March 23, 2020 stands at 37,380 (or 94% of total deaths). It was 44,840 on March 27, compared to 39,784 between March 1 and 27, 2019 and 44,325 at the same period in 2018. The comparisons from one year to the next are affected by a slight bias related upward dematerialization rate. On the other hand, these data make it possible to follow the most recent developments in each department. Thus, the rise in deaths in the Haut-Rhin continues, at a slower pace compared to the previous week, and it is also sharp in the Bas-Rhin. The deaths, the data of which were transmitted by dematerialized way, occurring between Saturday March 21 and Friday March 27 are respectively 26% and 31% higher in these two departments compared to the previous week (from Saturday March 14 to Friday March 20 ). Without claiming to be exhaustive, the increase in deaths transmitted electronically between these two weeks is notable in several departments of Île-de-France: Seine-Saint-Denis (+ 63%), Val d’Oise (+ 47%), Hauts-de-Seine (+ 36%), Paris (+ 32%), Seine-et-Marne (+ 27%)… The increase is also significant in Haute-Marne (+ 54% ), in Moselle (+ 45%), in the Vosges (+ 34%), the Territoire-de-Belfort (+ 25%) or the Doubs (+ 22%).
To compare the deaths that occurred in 2020 with the deaths in 2018 and 2019, it is important to take into account the significant fluctuations in the number of deaths per day depending on the months and years. France has recorded an average of 585,000 deaths each year since 2015 (slightly more in 2019 – 612,000 deaths – than in 2015 – 593,700 deaths -, due to the arrival at high mortality ages of large generations of the baby- boom). Each day, on average, 1,670 people die in France. This number of daily deaths is higher in winter (December, January and February), around 1,830, and lower each year, between May and September, around just over 1,500.
Variations from year to year can also be significant, especially in the winter months, the effect of seasonal flu being very different from year to year, both in its magnitude and in its duration. Thus, the average number of daily deaths in January was much higher in 2017 than in other years. As for deaths that occurred in February, their daily number was much higher in 2015 and 2019. Finally, the winter flu episode of winter 2017-2018 having been particularly intense and long, the daily deaths were much larger in March 2018 than in March in other years. Public Health France models allow each year to estimate the increase in mortality observed, especially in winter, and the role played by seasonal flu. The 2018-2019 winter flu epidemic, the peak of which was reached at the beginning of February 2019, was of limited duration (8 weeks) but with high mortality, however lower than the epidemic of the previous winter (2017-2018 ) whose duration had been exceptionally long. Concerning the epidemic of winter flu 2019-2020, there has been no excess mortality from all causes until the beginning of March (cf. Public Health France).
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