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Minsk’s threat of retaliation is not covered / Article

Belarusian analyst: Minsk’s threat of retaliatory sanctions has no cover


Just a few days after the European Union, the United States, Britain and Canada introduced it new economic sanctions against Belarusian officials and companies, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry said that the answer will be asymmetric and adequate, without explaining what it means. Earlier this week, the country’s foreign ministry said it would ban a number of goods from the country in response to hostilities from Western countries, and fill the internal market with goods from friendly countries.

“One of the most important ways to resist the collective external pressure of the West and strengthen Belarus’ economic security is to continue the Union’s integration programs with Russia and to establish lasting economic and trade ties with Eurasian Economic Union partners and beyond,” the ministry said.

As Belavia is also affected by Western sanctions, Belarus is also planning to impose response restrictions on a number of airlines from the European Union and the United Kingdom. The list of persons who will be denied entry to Belarus and also to Russia will also be expanded. At the same time, the ministry has indicated that there are also various undisclosed measures.

“These retaliatory measures may be revoked if the countries or groups of countries concerned abandon the harmful logic of the Cold War,

will return to a path of constructive co – operation aimed at maintaining peace and stability on the European continent, as well as fully fulfilling the international commitments they have made, “the ministry said.

The decision to impose retaliatory sanctions is expected to be confirmed in the coming days.

Economic analyst Sergei Chaliy, who was once nominated to the Coordinating Council of Opposition Forces, believes there is no significant coverage for the threat of retaliatory sanctions by Belarusian officials.

“I do not see any possibility of doing any harm to these countries.

All the threats made by Alexander Lukashenko are not feasible. For example, he said he would spit on all your Chinese or Russian transit – I’ll take it and lock everything. At that time, the Russians themselves began to say – how can you do that, because it is not yours. The dangers do exist, but they are not serious. And that’s why the Foreign Ministry initially called the response asymmetric. Afterwards, Prime Minister Golovchenko said – no, the response sanctions will be symmetrical. That’s how they’re not really clear. Yes, of course there is this unpublished part… But to harm those who have imposed sanctions on you, so as not to harm its interests, which you do not want to harm … I do not see such options, “said the analyst.

Belarusian media have already pointed out that disputes over sanctions and the response to them have been going on since 1997, when Alexander Lukashenko actually gained absolute power after the referendum. During this time, the Belarusian authorities have repeatedly threatened to put European officials on the list of undesirable persons in the country, but such a list has never been made public. At one time, the accounts of former US President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in Belarus were threatened with a freeze, but it is almost certain that they never had such an account or assets in Belarus. The threat of restricting the operations of Western airlines in Belarus is also, in effect, empty promises, as the West itself has suspended flights to Belarus following the forced landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk.

Immediately after the adoption of the Western sanctions, the opinion was expressed that one of the main goals was not to harm the Belarusian economy or society, but to get Alexander Lukashenko sitting at the negotiating table. Lukashenko’s rhetoric in recent days has shown that he is not ready for such talks, although the Foreign Ministry emphasizes that the lifting of sanctions and counter-sanctions could be discussed during a mutually beneficial dialogue.

Lukashenko is currently focusing on the debate on the next state constitution and its approval in a referendum. On Sunday, Lukashenko said that polls showed the people’s desire for change, so the new constitution should no longer focus on one person, be it Lukashenko or someone else. Critics of the regime, however, point out that both the results of the poll and the forthcoming referendum are only a cover for the true desire of the authoritarian leader to maintain and strengthen his power.

CONTEXT:

Protests against the regime of Belarus’s authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus have been steady since the August 2020 presidential election. For their winner former President Lukashenko was proclaimed, however, the opposition accuses the regime of widespread falsification of election results and demands his resignation. The opposition considers Sviatlan Cihanouska to be the real winner of the election.

Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets in Belarus at the height of the protests. Many opposition supporters have been imprisoned or fled abroad. The European Union this year strengthened sanctions against the Lukashenko regime.

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