Posted on Nov 4, 2019 at 5:57 amUpdated Nov 4, 2019 6:14 am
The “Minnesota Nice” took a hit. The inhabitants of this state in the north of the United States, which touches Canada, have the reputation of fleeing the conflict and reluctant to say no, siding with their interlocutors. A state of mind that contrasts with the rest of America. And yet: on October 10, thousands of them, rather young, took to the streets, burned “Make America Great Again” caps, forcing the police to intervene, fearing clashes with the supporters of the president. A shock in a region where the search for consensus and dialogue is reminiscent of Germany or Northern Europe, countries which have provided large numbers of migrants to Minnesota during its history.
It must be said that Minneapolis hosted, the same day, a meeting of Donald Trump, which multiplied the provocations the previous days. The US president has made Minnesota one of his main targets in his run for re-election next year. In 2016, he had only been beaten by 45,000 votes. The ballot promises to be just as tight in 2020. And he has adopted a method that is successful: controversy and personal attacks.
The American president has set up a real war machine there. Almost a year and a half before the election, he appointed a special campaign manager, at the head of a team of 25 people in four offices, who themselves trained 1,000 volunteers responsible for swarming and to put on the lists some 250,000 white men, mostly rural, who do not vote. A real reserve of voices. “The Republicans had never invested so much in the state, says Ken Martin, who chairs the Democratic committee there. Trump is a trophy collector and there is no better trophy for him than Minnesota. “
Donald Trump got involved personally very early on, betting early in the year that he would take over Minnesota, thanks to his economic policy. He also made it a fight against Ilhan Omar. The young Democratic member of Somali descent, elected in Minneapolis last year, arrived in the United States as a teenager, fleeing the war in her country. She has become one of his favorite targets. On Twitter or in meetings, he regularly calls for “Send her home”, in the company of other deputies with an immigrant background. “In 2016, I almost won Minnesota. In 2020, because of the anti-Semite and anti-American Ilhan Omar and because the economy of Minnesota is having the best year in its history, I will win the state ”, he announced this summer.
For Trump, winning Minnesota would be a master stroke, a winning ticket to the “pull tab”, the game so popular in the Midwest, and in Minnesota in particular. The state has always voted for the Democratic presidential candidate since 1972, although locally the votes are more divided. In 1984, the state had even been the only one (along with the District of Columbia) not to vote for Reagan, preferring the “local” Democratic candidate Walter Mondale. And political scientists had not really expected a shift in their forecasts. “In 2008, Obama won with a ten point lead. Eight years later, the gap has dropped to 1.5 points, notes Kathryn Pearson, a political scientist at the University of Minnesota. As at the national level, the campaigns, which have strayed from growth in recent years, have turned to Trump. These economic concerns were compounded by strong racial resentment. “
A gap between cities and countryside
Hard to imagine, however, when you walk through the streets of Minneapolis. The main city of the state is young, cosmopolitan. Like other major American metropolises, it has seen the flourishing of vegan restaurants, art galleries, craft breweries… And it has a strong identity. A real counter-culture has developed there, with one of the most prolific alternative rock scenes in the country. Prince made his debut there, Bob Dylan is from Duluth, more than two hours north of the state’s main city. Recently, hip-hop artists have emerged there, claiming an art of protest, like the feminist rapper Lizzo.
However, as soon as one moves away from the metropolis, the contrast is striking. Sibley County and its main town Gaylord, located an hour southwest of Minneapolis, voted nearly 70% for Donald Trump in 2016. On the road to it: fields as far as the eye can see, a few Pig farms and gigantic silos as road signs, which announce the names of the villages crossed. Almost as numerous: anti-abortion signs erected at regular intervals along the road: “Real men love babies”, “Our hearts begin to beat before we are born” … “Trump has an excellent economic record. He knows how to defend our interests, while the Democrats have sold our country ”, argues a resident of Gaylord.
For political scientists, Minnesota could be a national test. Sociologically, the state resembles the country, with large cities (Minneapolis, Saint Paul) more and more progressive and marked on the left, very largely Republican and even Trumpist campaigns, and suburbs which will play a role of arbiter. The theme of immigration is not absent from the campaign. The state is home to the largest Somali community outside of Somalia, mainly located in the Cedar-Riverside neighborhood, between central Minneapolis and the university. A recent immigration which has its origin… in an advertisement! “In the early 1990s, a local meat packing company was unable to hire. She ran classified ads in a bunch of local newspapers. And Somalis living in California came across it. The company did not require any particular qualification, it was not necessary to speak English… It all started from there ”, says Ahmed Yusuf, author of a book on the history of the Somali community. Over time, the region received refugees fleeing the war. They are now more than 70,000.
Since his election, Trump has regularly targeted this Muslim community, where one of his political rivals came from, in a strategic state. His supporters do not hesitate to relay fake, on social networks, speaking of misdeeds allegedly committed by Somalis. The US president himself accuses it of being a hotbed of terrorist activity. The reality is different: while the crime rate is higher than the national average in Cedar-Riverside, it remains rather low compared to other neighborhoods with similar standard of living. Minnesota’s 448,000 legal immigrants contribute $ 4.8 billion to the local economy. And they have largely participated in the rebirth of the city, since the 1990s. “Somalis today occupy all types of positions, taxi drivers, workers, but also teachers, lawyers”, explains Ahmed Yusuf. “Minneapolis is seen around the world, especially in Scandinavia where the Somali community is growing, as a model of integration, writes in her book, political scientist Stefanie Chambers, of Trinity College. Mayors from other cities, such as Portland, even came to study local policies to better identify the needs of this community. “
Divided families
Donald Trump’s positions mobilized the progressive youth of Minnesota. “There has always been a strong degree of commitment here, for civil rights, for minority rights, indique Kathryn Pearson. But those who oppose the president have felt the need to speak even more in recent months. The demonstrations were not a surprise. » Nick, a developer from Minneapolis, confirms. “The election of Donald Trump pushed me a little further to the left, in reaction. But it’s not just Donald Trump. Before, I tended to turn a blind eye to all the problems in this country. However, the whole system is rotten: democracy, health care, education… We really need a radical change. “ The young man recognizes himself in Elizabeth Warren. But indicates that he will vote “For any Democratic candidate”, to end the Trump era.
The bell sound is different with David. Twenty-four-year-old policeman claims he voted for Trump because he had it “Fed up with Democrats”. “I wanted someone who really gets things done, who is firm. “ His desire to build a wall on the border with Mexico bothers him, of course. “We are the United States, we have a tradition of welcoming. “ But, if the wall does not see the light of day, he says he is ready to vote for Trump again next year. In the region, some prefer to avoid family lunches: since 2016, tensions have been exacerbated between Republicans and Democrats, sometimes in the same street or within the same family.
The polarization of American political life is also found in the polls, with a breakthrough of the most left-wing candidates, on the Democratic side. In 2016, Bernie Sanders had won in Minnesota, against Hillary Clinton, carried by the working-class electorate in the eastern part of the state. This time, it’s Elizabeth Warren who seems to have the wind in their sails. On the Republican side, Donald Trump is emulating. Minnesota even has its “mini-Trump”, the nickname given to Jason Lewis, a former radio presenter who is aiming for a senator’s post, in the next election. Present at his side during the meeting in Minneapolis, he borrows from his mentor the taste for controversy. “A vast majority of young women don’t know what ‘GDP’ means,” he once said on the radio. They think about abortion, about gay marriage, but they don’t think about it. “ Then wanting to be more “liberal”, he compared gay marriage… to slavery. “Does the fact that someone has a slave affect me, personally?” No. If I think it’s wrong, I don’t own a slave, that’s all. But I don’t tell others that they can’t have it. If you don’t want to marry someone of the same sex, it’s the same, it’s your right. But why prevent the others? “
Beaten in the polls
Donald Trump’s coup on Minnesota hasn’t really worked, so far. The first polls, after his meeting in Minneapolis, even show that he is losing ground. He would be beaten by all of the main Democratic candidates, including Bernie Sanders. Local Senator Amy Klobuchar, who has only a tiny chance of winning the Democratic nomination, would even win with a 17-point lead!
Its strategy of division and stigmatization may be reaching its limits. As with the Somali community. “Somalis are quite conservative. Abortion is not very popular, for example, in the community. They could therefore be tempted to vote Republican, points out Ahmed Yusuf. But with what Trump says, it is impossible and 99.9% of Americans of Somali origin will vote Democrat! “ The Democrats, they are hard at work to counter it. “We don’t need to spend more than the Republicans, we just need to defeat their arguments on the ground. With trade taxes and the suffering that this causes for our farmers, it is for example nonsense that the rural world votes for it. And many are starting to realize it ”, supports Ken Martin.
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