According to experts, the supply of the Russian group on the right bank of the Dnieper through the Antonivka bridge does not take place, the aggressor is scratching his head thinking how to repair the bridge.
“At the same time, we will be in Militopolis.” Probably hit a Russian military base. If you raised your eyebrows you want to say that HIMARS does not carry to Melitopol (the distance to the territory controlled by Ukraine exceeds 100 km), so what can you say to that: ammunition depots “teleported” into the air about 150 km from the contact line. Little? The military airport of the Crimean coastal town of Novofedorivka is more than 200 km from the contact line – “let’s hang out”. A series of powerful explosions, black smoke,” experts write.
According to them, there are again thoughts that the Ukrainians have already received missiles of greater power and longer firing range.
Until then, the aggressor had freely transported forces and logistics from Crimea to the contact line. Now the Ukrainians are capable of attacking the logistics of the aggressor not only very deep in the territory controlled by the enemy (we saw such strikes last week). Now the Russians are being hit in a very vulnerable area without releasing forces and supplies from Crimea.
Targets are struck on the peninsula (Novofedorivka) or in the “bottleneck” (Novoaleksijivka and Henichesk), where there are only a few roads and its movement routes are easier to track.
“If hit by missiles, it says a lot about “even analogue” Russian air defenses and A2/AD. Our hearts feel that this is not the end. Orcs must be secretly longing for the days when Chornobayivka was their biggest headache. There is no doubt that the Russians will take revenge,” they say.
There is no euphoria in the channels of propagandists
According to experts, in the direction of Bakhmut, intermittent battles are taking place near Pokrovska, the situation is not clear.
“However, if the aggressor did not break into the depth of the Ukrainian defense, it is more likely that the defenders still hold this stretch. There is also no euphoria in the channels of orc propagandists, which only confirms this assumption,” they write.
On the other hand, the aggressor has reached the eastern approaches of Bachmut, heavy battles are taking place. However, military experts point out that for now it is difficult to talk about the storming of the city, because here the bridgehead of the aggressor is too narrow, the flanks are vulnerable.
It is likely that the Russians will first try to expand the bridgehead, block the city, and only then storm it (we saw this in Sjeverodonecke and Lisichianske). At the same time, the occupiers continue to try to attack towards Yakovlivka, hoping to destroy the interaction of the Ukrainian factions Bakhmut and Siversk. No results.
The hottest place in the Svitlodarsk section remains Veršyna – Zaicevė, there are less and less reports of shelling and battles in other parts of the section.
According to experts, this is related to the dwindling ammunition resources of the aggressor, it is becoming more and more difficult for him to create an advantage by fire.
For the occupiers, Zaitsev is important not only as a first step in blocking the Ukrainian group further south, but also in reaching Bakhmut from the south. The Ukrainians are defending themselves, it cannot be ruled out that they will move to a more convenient defensive line behind the Bakhmutovka river, thus strengthening the defense of Bakhmut itself.
In the center, the hottest points of conflict remain the same – north and south of Avdijivka, Piskai, Krasnohorivka, Marijinka.
You can see the concentration of Russian forces and actions towards the southern part of Avdijivka and Pisk. The reason is not only that it is increasingly difficult to create a superiority by fire, but also a significant lack of infantry.
“It should be understood that this “grand attack” was launched by about 5-7 “separate” battalion tactical groups, they are completely stuck in the first line of Ukrainian defense, and the possibilities of rotation and/or replenishment are very limited. The Russian regular units have been redeployed to the south, and the DNR/LNR mobilized are in no hurry to mobilize. Those who are mobilized are thrown into battle like firewood,” experts say.
In the southern direction, the results of Monday’s battle near Snihurivka are still unclear.
The aggressor attacked towards the west in several tactical groups of the paratrooper battalion, the Ukrainians attacked these aggressor forces with aviation. Whether this forced the aggressors to abandon their plans and retreat, experts do not have reliable information yet.
Fixed local Russian attacks around the road Chersonas – Mykolajivas and Lozovės – Andrijivka – Bilohirka section.
“It is still difficult to say that this is an already promised attack by the aggressor, but compared to last week, orc maneuver units are working much more actively. It is unlikely that in the short term (a week or two) the above-mentioned strikes in Crimea and Melitopol will have a direct impact on the situation on the contact line,” they say.
According to experts, the resources will be enough for the aggressor for a while, but later, together with Russian problems in ensuring supplies to the right bank of the Dnipro, these strikes (especially if they are repeated) may have an operational effect. For example, the Russians will be forced to abandon the offensive towards Kherson or Zaporizhia and go on the defensive.
© Zuma Press / Scanpix
In Kharkiv, the contact line is stable, local clashes continue. There are scouts and artillerymen on both sides. In the direction of Izium, there is a traditional pause, although local clashes continue. In the direction of Siversk, the Ukrainians repelled the Russian attempt to move towards Ivano-Darivka and Spirne, positional battles and shelling prevail.
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