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Mid-session analysis AOF France / Europe – Indecisive European stock exchanges, American employment in sight

(AOF) – European stock markets start the third quarter on an uncertain note. If European manufacturing PMIs confirmed their recovery in June, following the lifting of containment measures, concern remains in view of the increase in cases of Covid-19 in the United States. A large burst of US statistics could influence the trend in the afternoon. Note that transactions have been disrupted on the German market due to a technical problem. At around 12 noon, the CAC 40 lost 0.50% at 4,906.99 points while the EuroStoxx 50 gained 0.01% at 3,234.42 points.

The painful announcement was expected. It was well done. Airbus (-1.68% to 62.45 euros) will carry out a vast restructuring plan covering nearly 15,000 positions, or just over 11% of its total workforce. This will result in particular in the abolition of 5,000 jobs in France, 5,100 in Germany and 1,700 in the United Kingdom by summer 2021 at the latest. The process of information and consultation with the social partners has started with a view to to conclude agreements whose implementation will begin in the fall of 2020.

Suez lost 2.40% to 10.18 euros. If the world number two in environmental services has indicated that its activity is starting to normalize, Jefferies warns that the consensus should be revised downwards. Suez leads Veolia in its wake: -2.22% to 19.58 euros. Suez’s turnover in the first half of the year should show an organic decrease of around 6% while the underlying EBIT is expected to be between 320 and 330 million euros excluding any “one-off” element.

The French new passenger car market, a benchmark segment on the automotive market, grew by 1.2% in June 2020 over one year, with 233,818 new registrations. This was revealed by the Committee of French Automobile Manufacturers (CCFA). The French market is therefore recovering, after several months marked by the Covid-19 crisis. Compared with June 2019, the group Renault (-3.21% to 21.85 euros) saw its sales increase by 6.5%. For its part, the group PSA (-1.31% to 14.29 euros) saw hers fall by 9.1%.

Macroeconomic figures of the day

The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the France finally stood at 52.3 in June 2020 against a flash estimate of 52.1 and after 40.6 in May. “After three months of sharp contraction resulting from the containment measures implemented as part of the fight against the spread of coronavirus, the French manufacturing sector finally returned to growth in June,” commented Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit.

The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for the euro areas finally stood at 47.4 in June 2020 against a flash estimate of 46.9 and after 39.4 in May. “The final PMI data for June confirms the signs of a strong recovery in the manufacturing sector observed after the introduction of the first deconfinement measures in the eurozone countries,” commented Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit.

The IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for germany finally stood at 45.2 in June 2020 against a flash estimate of 44.6 and after 36.6 in May. The slowdown in the manufacturing sector therefore continues to ease in June.

In Germany, the unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in June 2020, against a consensus of 6.6% and after 6.3% in May.

To the United States, the evolution of employment in the private sector in June will be revealed at 2.15 p.m., the purchasing managers index (ISM) for the manufacturing sector in June at 4 p.m. at the same time as construction spending in May.

Oil stocks in United States will be released at 4:30 p.m. and the minutes of the last Fed monetary policy meeting at 8 p.m.

Around noon, the euro yielded 0.19% to 1.1221 dollars.

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