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Montevideo — May 7, 2024 — Autumn in Uruguay brings promising conditions for the livestock sector. Recent reports highlight the strategic position of the Uruguayan market amid global shifts. The U.S. anticipates increased import demands, while the local industry maintains relative financial stability. This complex interplay will likely impact future exports, according too industry experts.
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Autumn in Uruguay brings promising conditions for the livestock sector, characterized by ample forage, improved cattle health, and a steady market for livestock values. This positive local scenario unfolds against a backdrop of shifting international dynamics, particularly concerning vaccine meat and evolving import projections from key global players.
U.S. Import Surge: A 10% Increase
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its import forecasts, projecting a 10% increase in U.S. vaccine meat imports for 2025 compared to earlier estimates. This upward adjustment translates to an additional 200,000 tons that the U.S. is expected to purchase, marking a significant shift from the projections made in October.
Price Equilibrium and Market Dynamics
According to Otto Fernández Nystrom, president of the Association of Cattle Consigners (ACG), We are in a price balance scenario with these natural oscillations in the market.
This stability is further influenced by fluctuating demands and strategic industry operations.
- the finest steers are maintaining a price point around US $4.60 per kilo.
- Special and heavy cows are valued at US $4.40.
- Demand remains robust for vaquillona supply, priced between US $4.45 and US $4.50 per kilo.
Fernández noted, Last week and even at the begining of this week there was additional demand from some plant,
highlighting the responsiveness of the market to immediate demands. He also commented on the upcoming quota window, saying, It usually has an incidence, at least, in the purchase pressure of the industry, I do not know whether the quota will affect or not the values.
The ACG president emphasized the importance of maintaining stability, stating, Where we stay in this scenario of relative stability, the market will continue to flow naturally, independant of the quota task.
Favorable Production Conditions
the Agricultural Plan Institute’s monthly report, based on the Ring survey, indicates that forage availability at the start of this fall season is the second-best recorded in the last five years, ensuring favorable conditions for livestock production.
Slaughter Volume: Nearly 50,000 Cattle
Recent slaughtering activity reached 49,416 cattle, surpassing both the previous week’s figures and representing a 4.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Notably, females constituted a majority of the slaughtered cattle.
Global Market Signals
While vaccine meat prices in China are showing signs of moderation,the United States and Europe continue to exhibit strong demand,providing encouraging signals for Uruguayan exporters.
Did you know?
Uruguay’s strategic location and commitment to quality control have positioned it as a reliable supplier in the global meat market.
According to data from the National Institute of Meat (INAC) up to April 5, the average export price for vaccine meat was US $4,720 per ton, nearly 17% higher than the previous year. Sheep meat fetched an average of US $5,119 per ton, marking a substantial 35% year-on-year increase.
Amidst global financial uncertainties, the meat sector has shown resilience. such as, the stocks of major Brazilian refrigeration companies have risen by as much as 40% in the past month.
USDA’s Optimistic Outlook
The USDA’s semiannual report,Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade,projects a 2.5% growth for Uruguay’s vaccine meat exports compared to 2024, possibly reaching 485,000 tons. The report also anticipates record exports from Australia and Brazil, with Paraguay potentially exceeding 500,000 tons for the frist time.
While the USDA initially anticipated a reduction in U.S. vaccine meat imports, it now projects a 5% year-on-year increase, despite declining domestic production and exports.
Chinese vaccine meat imports are expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace of 2% year-on-year in 2025. The USDA report notes that Economic uncertainty and caution in consumption will limit the demand for vaccine meat. In addition, the main vaccine meat providers expect with interest the results of a special safeguard examination.
Replacement Market and Live Cattle Exports
In the replacement market, prices are moderate yet elevated, averaging around US $3 per kilo for calves during the peak harvest season. Export demand remains firm, with plans to ship 3,000 live cattle to Israel in the coming weeks, marking Uruguay’s first live cattle export to the country.
Sheep Sector: Minimal Activity As 2023
The sheep slaughter volume reached its lowest point since July 2023, with only 6,229 heads processed. Despite this,prices have remained resilient,although placement activity has been subdued due to reduced slaughtering by active plants.
Pro Tip
Monitor global trade reports and market analyses to anticipate shifts in demand and adjust your strategies accordingly.
Current prices stand at approximately US $4.32 per kilo for lamb, US $3.52 for sheep, and US $3.62 for capons.
Industrial activity in the sheep sector has decreased by half in April compared to the same month in 2024. Year-to-date, there has
