(CercleFinance.com) – The Paris Stock Exchange should open Thursday morning without major changes, the absence of the American markets, closed for Thanksgiving, pushes investors to caution.
Around 8:15 am, the ‘futures’ contract on the CAC 40 index – delivered in December – rose by 7.5 points to 6,684 points, announcing a very slight rise at the start of the session.
Although the activity promises to be limited on the European markets, the session will nonetheless be enlivened by some meetings that will provide more information on the economic situation in Germany and in the Eurozone.
In an environment that seems favorable for the moment for risky assets, caution should remain before the publication, in the late morning, of the Ifo index of the economic climate in Germany.
As the business outlook for corporate leaders continues to deteriorate, it seems hard to imagine Europe’s largest economy continuing to grow year-end.
The recent announcement of a large bailout package to cushion the energy shock could stem the decline in sentiment, but future conditions should still signal an impending severe recession.
Always eagerly awaited, the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) could provide some interesting insights into the evolution of the debates within the Governing Council.
‘After the meeting on 27 October, Christine Lagarde’s press conference might have given the impression that the tone was a little less ‘hawkish’, the Oddo BHF teams recalled.
“Nothing has come since validating a real change of direction,” continues the private bank.
‘With inflation continuing to gallop, the ECB feels compelled to further tighten its policy even if this has no direct effect on the sources of inflation,’ explains Oddo.
Obligatory closure of Wall Street, trading volumes should remain limited in the absence of American investors, who will reopen tomorrow for only half a session.
Wall Street closed higher Wednesday as investors welcomed the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, which suggest a slower pace of rate hikes may soon become appropriate.
The minutes detail the central bank’s plan to slow rate hikes to 0.50% in December after approving a fourth consecutive 0.75% hike earlier this month, also at Wells Fargo.
The Dow Jones took the opportunity to gain 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1%.
In the bond market, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to around 3.70% following these announcements.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar weakened, reaching a level close to 1.0430 against the euro, the last ‘minutes’ testifying, in the eyes of observers, in favor of a softening of the Fed’s monetary tightening cycle.
The commodity market appears to be at a standstill, asleep ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend in the US.
On the oil market, the barrel of US light crude stabilized at around 77.4 dollars after the air hole the day before, fears related to a ceiling on the price of Russian oil as winter approaches obscure the decline in inventories in the United States.
