Prague There are only three weeks left until the US presidential election. John Authers at Bloomberg summarizes the prospects.
Surveys suggest states Bloombergthat Joe Biden is leading by so much that he should win comfortably even in a complex American election system through an electoral college.
His leadership in the undecided states for which the greatest battle will be fought is beyond statistical error. If the electoral elected in the United States, but simply and directly democratically, even Biden’s leadership could be quantified in the form of double digits.
Investors and bettors are also beginning to believe this – according to them, Trump now has basically only a third chance. Does that mean Biden’s fans have won?
1. Certainly not. Biden will probably win, but there’s still a third chance he won’t.
2. Will the result be contradicted? It’s less likely than two weeks ago, but it’s more likely than the betting markets say today.
3. Who will control the Senate? Probably Democrats, but it will be very tight.
For Biden to lose, something important must happen in the next three weeks or the polls are bad. As for Biden, something might happen that calls into question his ability to play such an important role. There is no doubt that Donald Trump himself is able to generate surprises – not even that he is strongly motivated to produce these surprises. The battle for Trump’s Supreme Court nomination, Amy Coney Barrett, will bring another layer of unpredictability. The way this political theater takes place will generate risk for both parties.
Authers also stops at Republican voters, who systematically hide their voting preference. In short, they are afraid or ashamed to admit their support to Trump, because it is not worn where they live or work. Most studies on the subject estimate that silent voters can raise Trump’s preferences by two percent.
Then we come to the question of questioning and challenging the election. In the popular election, Biden must win by four percent to win in the system through electoral college. A massive vote through the post office and two armies of hungry lawyers, who will recalculate every vote and every ballot box – all this increases the chance of a nice mess.
And as far as the Senate is concerned, they can decide almost the plots. In North Carolina, for example, a Democrat candidate has just admitted marital infidelity, and the wheel of fortune begins to turn immediately in the polls.
A trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union is still possible. The weekend’s diplomacy was very lively and the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was on the phone several times with the French president and the German chancellor. The EU and France will hopefully withdraw from their tough position on fishermen’s rights, and Britain may not meet the threat of leaving the negotiations on Thursday if an agreement is not on the horizon. It is written in a fresh analysis as well na Bloombergu.
On the server Euronitelligence.com but they come with a sinful thought. It seems realistic to them that there will be no agreement on 31 December, but some will eventually be concluded within the next year. From the point of view of traders, this looks like pure madness. That will start the whole system of tariffs and quotas, that armies of officials will enter, and that so many business opportunities will be lost unnecessarily just so that in time it will be canceled again?
But the advantage will be the clarity and focus of the policy. Information noise and uncertainty will disappear, threats and speculation, and the results of a world without agreement will be clear, legible and observable. The idea that no deal is better than a bad deal is a nice political slogan, but it has nothing to do with the world of real politics. Everyone will understand what an elbow is for. Even French fishermen will realize that they fish better in the world with an agreement than without it. And it is the EU that, thanks to the trade surplus with Britain, needs more uninterrupted trade flows. If Britain leaves now, maybe it will really negotiate something better next year.