Rapid reduction of coal and nuclear power… Concern about supplying new and renewable energy on time
9th basic plan for power supply and demand confirmed
Nuclear power plant reduced to 17 units in 2034
Coal power generation also reduced to 29GW
Power generation facility shutdown/replacement period
Concerns over supply and demand disruptions and power gaps
LNG emits a lot of greenhouse gases
Ministry of Industry “Inexpensive cost in the long run”
With the election of US presidential candidate Joe Biden, who presented eco-friendly pledges such as re-joining the Paris Climate Change Convention and suppressing carbon emissions, eco-friendly industries such as electric vehicle batteries and solar power industry in Korea are emerging. The picture shows the Hangyeong wind power complex in Hangyeong-myeon, Jeju-si on the afternoon of the 10th. News 1
It is analyzed that the ‘9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand’, confirmed by the government on the 28th, reflects the government’s strong commitment to de-coal and nuclear power generation.
After the announcement of the basic plan for power supply and demand in May, it was confirmed without much change despite concerns from various fields such as instability in power supply and demand and an increase in electricity rates. The main focus is to reduce coal power and nuclear power plants, and to fill this void with LNG (liquefied natural gas) and renewable energy.
According to the Electric Power Plan, 60 units of coal power plants currently in operation will be reduced to 30 units, or half, of which 24 units will be converted to LNG generation. The seven coal power plants currently under construction are planned to be completed as scheduled.
Accordingly, the capacity of coal power plants will decrease from 35.8 GW (gigawatt) this year to 29.0 GW in 2034. As for nuclear power generation, Shin-Kori Units 5 and 6 are completed and Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4 are excluded from the plan, giving them from 26 to 17 units. The capacity will also be reduced from 23.3GW to 19.4GW during the same period. Instead, LNG power generation and renewable energy facility capacity will increase 1.4 times and 3.9 times, respectively, from 41.3 GW to 59.1 GW and 20.1 GW to 77.8 GW, respectively.
The Ministry of Industry said that it plans to achieve the GHG emission target of 193 million million in connection with the 2030 NDC (National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target), which is scheduled to be submitted to the United Nations at the end of this year. This is a 23.6% decrease from 252 million in 2017. The emission of fine dust in the power generation sector is also estimated to decrease by 57%, from 21,000 in 2019 to 9000 in 2030. In addition, it has decided to speed up the expansion of renewable energy by raising the intermediate target for solar and wind power in 2025 from the existing 29.9GW to 42.7GW.
Concerns about this power supply plan remain.
First of all, the possibility of unstable power supply and demand is raised in the industry, while rapidly reducing coal and nuclear power plants, which currently account for about 70% of domestic power generation. During the period of building and shutting down power plant facilities, power gaps can occur. There are also questions about whether new and renewable energy such as solar power can supply sufficient power in a timely manner. Some point out that LNG is also not a perfect eco-friendly energy source, so it goes against the government’s carbon neutral plan.
An official from the energy industry said, “In the case of LNG power generation, fine dust will be greatly improved, but about 2.45 million tons of greenhouse gases are generated per 1 GW, and about half of coal power generation is still emitted. “There will be no other choice but to review the disposal of LNG power plants again.”
Concerns over an increase in electricity rates are also high. According to the industry, the construction cost of an LNG power plant costs about 1 trillion won per 1GW. Considering the disposal of existing coal power plants and building LNG power plants, more funding is required.
Regarding the cost of expanding renewable energy such as solar and wind power, the government did not give a clear answer, but it is expected that there will be considerable costs. It is pointed out that this can be a burden to consumers such as electricity bills. The government expected the increase in electricity rates by 2030 to be 10.9% compared to 2017, but this is the background of the forecast that it could exceed that.
In the case of LNG, it is entirely dependent on imports, so if oil prices rise, electricity rates may rise.
Deok-Hwan Lee, an emeritus professor at Sogang University, said, “In consideration of the cost of astronomical expansion, we believe that electricity rates can rise by 10% every year at a certain point in time.” I said.
An official from the Ministry of Industry said, “Right now, the cost of renewable energy may be more expensive than coal or nuclear power plants, but in the long run, renewable energy will come out cheaper than other energy sources,” said an official of the Ministry of Industry. There is” he explained.
Even though the plan was finalized after four days of the public hearing held on the 24th, there are doubts whether the process of collecting opinions has been done properly. At that time, the public hearing was conducted mainly online due to the aftermath of Corona 19, and it was virtually impossible to submit on-site opinions other than prior inquiries.
The official added, “As the 9th Basic Power Supply and Demand Plan, which should have been announced last year, was delayed for more than a year, various opinions were collected in the process, and procedures were sufficiently prepared despite the corona.”
Reporter Jungwoo Lee [email protected]
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