Jakarta, CNN Indonesia –
Singapore became the first country in the Southeast Asian region (ASEAN) that sank into the abyss economic recession or experiencing minus economic growth in two consecutive quarters.
The economic recession occurred because the Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry announced preliminary data on economic growth would fall 41.2 percent in the second quarter of 2020 from the first quarter of 2020.
While on an annual basis, the economy will also contract by 12 percent. The decline was deeper than the first quarter of 2020 which was minus 0.7 percent.
So, how is the condition of other neighboring Indonesia? Who will follow Singapore next?
According to the international research institute Morgan Stanley, countries in the Southeast Asian region that will overtake Singapore on the brink of recession are Thailand and the Philippines. Because the two countries have recorded minus economic growth since the first quarter of 2020.
Noted, Thailand’s economic growth minus 1.8 percent in the first three months of this year. While the Philippines is minus 0.2 percent.
In the second quarter of 2020, the pace of Thailand’s economy is forecast to fall deeper to minus 10 percent. While the Philippines dropped to minus 14 percent.
For Thailand, Morgan Stanley assessed that the economic downturn occurred because the White Elephant Country relies heavily on the trade and tourism sectors. Unfortunately, the two sectors were the hardest hit by the current corona or covid-19 virus pandemic.
“They are a more export-oriented economy. They will be influenced by external developments to a greater extent,” Morgan Stanley said in a report titled Asia Economic Mid Year Outlook 2020, quoted Wednesday (7/15).
Worse projections, the economy of Thailand and the Philippines will continue to be negative until it closes this year. Morgan Stanley estimates that the country’s economy with a capital in Bangkok will be minus 2 percent in the third quarter and minus 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
While the Philippine economy will be minus 4.5 percent in the third quarter and minus 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020. While Singapore, which had already been in a recession, will be in that gap until the end of the year as well. The projection is that the Singa economy is minus 8 percent in the third quarter and minus 2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020.
After the three countries, a recession queue awaits Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the projections will only occur in the third quarter of 2020.
This is because Malaysia’s economic growth is still 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Likewise with Indonesia, which amounted to 2.97 percent in January-March 2020.
In the second quarter of 2020, Morgan Stanley estimated Malaysia’s economy to be minus 13 percent and Indonesia to minus 5 percent. Then in the third quarter of 2020, the neighbor country will be minus 6 percent and the national economy minus 1.5 percent.
The shadow of negative growth is predicted to be at home in both countries until the fourth quarter of 2020, where Malaysia is minus 1.6 percent and Indonesia is minus 0.5 percent.
Overall, Morgan Stanley estimates that the economies of Southeast Asian countries which amounted to 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2020 will fall to minus 8.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020. Then, minus 3.3 percent in the third quarter and minus 0.8 percent in the IV quarter of 2020.
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