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Like the flu, which kills 600,000 people a year…

As the corona19 vaccination started in earnest around the world, the’end of the long tunnel’ began to appear little by little. As the number of infected people who had only increased, the number of infected people began to drop, and voices in anticipation of returning to daily life began to emerge from various places.

Nature’s global expert’Post Pandemic’ survey
89% “will be endemic”… 6% of “End”
Difficult to end such as’immune-resistant mutation’
“One of three forms: cold, flu, and measles”

– However, most scientists believe that even if the current pandemic subsides, Corona 19 will not completely disappear. It is a little less dangerous than it is now, but it will remain by our side as an endemic disease.

Science journal Nature asked 119 infectious disease experts around the world about the’post pandemic’. 89% answered, “Corona 19 is likely to remain endemic without disappearing in any form.” Only 6% of respondents said they would not. rest of it We have reserved judgment

Pandemic future Corona 19 is likely to become endemic?. Graphic = Kim Hyun-seo [email protected]


Professor Michael Osterholm at the University of Minnesota cut it off as “completely eliminating the COVID-19 virus is as impractical as a plan to build a bridge to the moon.” It is said that there has been no case in history where the’animal-borne virus’ such as the world-wide corona 19 has completely disappeared.

The question is in what form it remains.

Nature predicted that if Corona 19 becomes endemic, it will take one of three main aspects. They are the cold type, the flu type, and the measles type.

Corona 19 four scenarios.  Graphic = Kim Hyun-seo kim.hyeonseo12@joongang.co.kr

Corona 19 four scenarios. Graphic = Kim Hyun-seo [email protected]


The first possibility is to become a mild illness of everyday life, like a common cold. There are a total of seven coronaviruses that have been infected so far, including Corona 19. Of these, four types, OC43, 229E, HKU1, and NL63, all cause mild cold.

Jenny Lavigne, an infectious disease researcher at Emory University in the United States, said, “If you get 4 types of coronavirus, which is the cause of a mild cold, your immune system will quickly weaken and cannot completely block re-infection.” said. Corona 19, even if the immune system that occurred once does not prevent re-infection at the source, there is a possibility that the symptoms will be greatly weakened.

In this case, once the immune system is established with a vaccine or infection, it is not necessary to get the vaccine every year.

The second is the possibility of recurring annual flu like seasonal flu. The flu is more severe than a cold, and it kills 600,000 people worldwide every year. Mutations also occur almost every year. That’s why you should get a new flu vaccine every winter.


Corona 19 can also remain a serious disease through a process of mutation that neutralizes the immune system. In fact, mutations from South Africa, in which a mutation in the spike protein, a pathway for viral penetration, has already significantly reduced the efficacy of some vaccines.

Biologist Jesse Bloom of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, a world-class cancer research center, predicts that “Corona 19, if not as serious as it is now, will eventually become like seasonal flu.” In this case, you need to get a new vaccine regularly, like the flu, to prevent a serious situation.

The third scenario remains in the form of an epidemic that only appears in some regions. It has disappeared in most countries, but it is a measles-like form that rarely reappears.

Professor Christopher Dye of Oxford University in the UK explained, “Even if the virus disappears in some countries with the vaccine, Corona 19 may appear repeatedly in areas where the vaccine is not sufficiently distributed or the health system is not properly established, and it may remain endemic.”

The reason why experts believe that it will be difficult for Corona 19 to end completely is because the conditions are very demanding.

To end COVID-19 ^The condition must be met that immunity does not decrease and persists forever ^Mutations that avoid the immune system must not occur ^The condition that the corona19 virus must not remain in animals. Nature analyzed that if any of these three are not covered by Corona 19, the virus will eventually remain in some form.

What are the factors if it becomes endemic?.  Graphic = Kim Hyun-seo kim.hyeonseo12@joongang.co.kr

What are the factors if it becomes endemic?. Graphic = Kim Hyun-seo [email protected]


In particular, it is predicted that’mutation against the immune system’ and’deterioration of immunity’, which are already in the case, will be the biggest factors that cause Corona 19 to remain endemic. Modena and Pfizer, who have released the Corona 19 vaccine, also mentioned that they see the immune effect of the vaccine for about 1 to 2 years.

However, experts expect that no matter what endemic disease Corona 19 remains in the form of endemic diseases, the situation in which infected and dead will continue as it is now, and the entire global village will be blocked. This is because the vaccine’s preventive effect is already appearing, and new vaccines and treatments are rapidly appearing.

Reporter Seok Kyung-min [email protected]




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