Analyse
Status: 03/31/2023 4:06 p.m
In Europe, the end of the internal combustion engine is sealed. But what are the prospects for this technology on the global car market, which has secured billions in business for German manufacturers for decades?
After long discussions, the EU finally decided this week to phase out combustion engines from 2035. This decision could mean planning security for German car manufacturers, because it seems that combustion engine technology no longer has a future, at least in Europe.
In the field of this technology in particular, German manufacturers have traditionally been world leaders for decades. But the dictum was not entirely consistent, because so-called e-fuels should remain permitted. What does the EU decision mean for German car manufacturers and the global car market?
Commitment to e-mobility
The German industry representatives agree that they all face each other tagesschau.de commit to the electric drive. “The Volkswagen Group is driving the electrification of mobility energetically and in a focused manner,” said a spokesman. According to BMW, BMW is also relying on “consistent electrification of the product portfolio”. According to the manufacturer, Mercedes-Benz is aligning its portfolio “step by step worldwide with electromobility”. Opel also says that electrification is at the heart of the company’s strategy. “From 2028, Opel will be fully electric in Europe.”
The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) regards e-mobility as a key technology for achieving climate targets in transport: “The focus in the automotive industry is therefore on the further development of electric motors with battery and fuel cell technology.” But is the combustion engine finally history?
“Discussion about combustion engines will continue”
Experts such as Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, Director of the CAR Center Automotive Research, criticize the fact that new cars with combustion engines for synthetic fuels will still be allowed to be registered in the EU after 2035. “An absolute ban on combustion engines would have been right,” Dudenhöffer said tagesschau.de. “This decision will set the European auto industry back.” The expert fears that the discussion about the combustion engine will now continue.
If you allow e-fuels, you must also allow biofuels, says Dudenhöffer. “This could even be sued, since there is no objective reason to treat biofuels differently than e-fuel. The German car manufacturers will now consider how to save the combustion engines in the long term,” says the industry expert with certainty.
How important is technology openness?
The industry association VDA has advocated so-called openness to technology. “Whether electromobility, hydrogen, e-fuels or a solution that is not yet known: openness to technology is crucial to enable climate neutrality not only in Europe but worldwide,” says the industry association.
Industry expert Dudenhöffer, on the other hand, believes that investments are spread across many areas and the necessary infrastructure can hardly be supplied nationwide. Anyone who does not act in a focused manner buys the risk of only being half-heartedly present in the future field of battery-electric cars. “Chinese car manufacturers, for example, are now very successful in the electric segment. And Tesla is currently growing so rapidly that if it continues at this rate, Tesla will put a lot of pressure on the German competition,” explains the CAR director.
1.3 billion combustion engines on the roads worldwide
Looking at the world market, however, shows that the topic of combustion engines is by no means over. “The internal combustion engine will certainly continue to play a major role worldwide,” according to the VDA. Basically, different regions need different solutions and technologies. Also due to a lack of charging infrastructure, many regions “could not implement e-mobility for the time being”.
It sounds similar at Volkswagen: “In the Group, we are also thinking about the existing fleet, the vehicles that will still be driving with combustion engines today and in the years to come. Today, there are 1.3 billion combustion engines on the roads alone. Many of them will continue to be used for decades be on the market.” According to Mercedes-Benz, the goal of the Stuttgart group is to become fully electric by 2030 wherever market conditions allow. The decisive factor is that people accept new technologies, explains the group.
More acceptance when prices go down
Some car manufacturers, such as the Japanese manufacturers Honda or Toyota, have been more cautious about e-mobility, at least so far, and continue to rely on different types of drive. This could also be related to models that should be attractive and affordable for customers in developing and emerging countries. However, Pedro Pacheco, car expert at the analysis company Gartner, believes that markets outside of Europe, China and the USA will also be affected in the long term by the focus on electromobility.
“Once electric cars have captured most of the car market in China, Europe and the US, it means they will have an advantage over the combustion engine in terms of economies of scale,” the expert said. “So they’re going to be cheaper than internal combustion engines.”
This will also have an impact on the developing markets, says Pacheco. “The price advantage will ultimately also lead to strong acceptance there.” But the expert concedes: It could be another two decades before things get that far.
