It seems unlikely, but only at first glance: Does Putin’s calculations include the opening of the Balkans on a second front in an attempt to undermine confused European resistance? The Swiss NCC is looking for an answer to this question
In the last ten years, the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo has flared up more than once. In most cases, the spark starts with the introduction of new border rules for people or goods, but the deeper reason lies in the unclear relationship between Belgrade and Pristina, according to the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NCC). Politicians on both sides routinely refer to the danger, emanating from the other side, and swords are brandished.Then things quickly calm down.
This time, however, the geopolitical frameworks in which these well-worn conflicts are playing out are different – Moscow’s war against Ukraine and its unclear outcome have created a sense of insecurity in the West, which also affects the Balkans. Does Vladimir Putin intend to open a second front in the Balkans to unbalance the confused European resistance?
The Kremlin’s Serbian lever
At first glance, this does not seem out of the question. Serbian President Vucic refuses to join sanctions against Russia, and Moscow is supplying cheap gas to Serbia – even though it has cut off supplies to other countries. Putin continues to enjoy the sympathy of Serbian society, which perceives the war not as aggression, but as a tragic fraternal war. Putin is trying to use Serbian leverage, but in fact Moscow does not trust the Serbs, and with good reason. Because Vucic is flirting with the Russians (and the Chinese) in order to have an alternative to rapprochement with the EU, while at the same time maintaining his interest in the Community, because he knows that it is the relations with the EU, and not the Russian gas, that depend on the country’s relative well-being , and his own future.
But if Russia subjugates Ukraine and the EU’s defensive front cracks, the situation in the Balkans will become much more dangerous. If Serbia’s neighbors – Hungary and Bulgaria – secede and the EU loses its weight as a regional hegemon, the doors will open for a dangerous reshuffle of the Balkans. Which cannot pass peacefully in the context of Greater Serbian and Greater Albanian power claims, even if Russia does not intervene directly.
The task of Europe
What could Europe do? It should do everything so that Ukraine does not lose the war and prevent Russia from shifting its sphere of influence to the West, writes NCC. The order established by Europe in the Balkans must be preserved, and in the long term it is important that the countries of the Western Balkans, after carrying out the necessary reforms, are accepted into the common European market. In this situation, Russia will not be able to interfere in the game, states the Swiss edition.
The tension in the region is also paid attention to by the expert on the Western Balkans, Michael Brand. In the Tageszeitung, the politician from the German CDU defines the Republika Srpska-Serbia-Russia axis as a “militant axis”. If we really want to effectively prevent another war in the Balkans, peace must be guaranteed by NATO, he stressed.
Frozen conflicts can flare up again
RND also replicates the thesis that the so-called “frozen conflicts” – from Kosovo to Tajikistan – threaten to flare up again. On the one hand, with the war in Ukraine, nationalist forces feel emboldened, and on the other hand, Moscow either ignites these conflicts itself, or is now reluctant to intervene .
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