Israel’s Nuclear Claims: A Deep Dive into Iran’s Program
Israel’s recent actions regarding Iran’s nuclear program have sparked global debate. At the heart of the matter is a claim by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: Iran is on the cusp of building multiple nuclear weapons. However, the evidence supporting this assertion is contested by international bodies and intelligence agencies.
The Israeli Justification
To justify an attack on Iran, Netanyahu stated he was acting to prevent a secret Iranian plan to build a nuclear bomb. He alleged Tehran already possessed the capacity to construct nine nuclear weapons. Israeli officials also claim to have shared information with the US, suggesting that Iran had recently achieved critical technological advancements.
Critics of Netanyahu, however, contend that his actions were intended to preempt a diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran. Others suggest he was acting to avert the collapse of his own government. They emphasize that for two decades, Israel has maintained that Iran is on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon.
“Dates are always arbitrary. But they are not far. It would be, you know, a matter of months, not years.”
—Rafael Grossi, IAEA Director
Conflicting Intelligence
Israel’s assertion relies heavily on its intelligence community possessing more comprehensive knowledge of Iran’s nuclear program than its US counterparts or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Yet, Tulsi Gabbard, the US director of national intelligence, told the Senate intelligence committee that the American intelligence community assessed that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon.
However, Gabbard added that there appeared to have been “an erosion of a decades-long taboo in Iran on discussing nuclear weapons in public.” She noted that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile has reached its highest levels, which is unprecedented for a nation without nuclear weapons.
A recent IAEA report did not state Iran was close to building a nuclear weapon. The report cited Iran’s failure to cooperate fully, particularly regarding its past secret nuclear program. The IAEA could not confirm Iran’s civil nuclear program was solely civilian but stopped short of declaring Iran on the brink of a nuclear weapon.
The IAEA report examines Iran’s advancements toward bomb construction, its level of cooperation with UN inspectors, and its enriched uranium stockpiles. Since 2019, the IAEA has examined Iranian human-made uranium particles at undeclared sites. These sites were part of a program known as Amad, which is believed to have ended in 2003.
The report concluded that these sites were part of an undeclared nuclear program carried out by Iran until the early 2000s, using undeclared nuclear material. The IAEA director, Rafael Grossi, stated Iran had repeatedly failed to provide credible answers to the agency’s inquiries.
Iran’s Perspective
From the Iranian perspective, these actions were permissible responses to the US’s 2018 withdrawal from the nuclear deal. The IAEA report also notes that Iran has been accumulating a stockpile of highly enriched uranium beyond the levels specified in the 2015 agreement. Iran’s stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium increased by approximately 50%.
The IAEA report stated it has “no credible indications of an ongoing, undeclared structured nuclear programme.” The report also indicated that senior Iranian officials have stated that the use of nuclear weapons is incompatible with Islamic law. However, statements from former Iranian officials suggest that Tehran has all the capabilities to produce nuclear weapons.
The report emphasized that Iran is the only non-nuclear-weapon state in the world producing and accumulating uranium enriched to 60%, a matter of serious concern. Experts estimate that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon within weeks (Council on Foreign Relations).
The Road Ahead
Iran’s nuclear program remains a complex and contentious issue, marked by conflicting intelligence assessments and international scrutiny. The IAEA’s role in monitoring and verifying Iran’s activities is crucial to assessing the program’s trajectory and preventing proliferation. The situation continues to evolve, necessitating ongoing diplomatic efforts and vigilance.
