Is a rebound in the epidemic inevitable?

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DECRYPTION – The level of transmission of the virus, R, has slightly exceeded 1, that is to say that on average each infected person contaminates a little more than one person.

The R, the level of transmission of the virus, was slightly above 0.5 in mid-May, and has increased slowly to stabilize around 1 since June.
The R, the level of transmission of the virus, was slightly above 0.5 in mid-May, and has increased slowly to stabilize around 1 since June. JEAN-FRANCOIS MONIER / AFP

Will summer be ruined by an epidemic rebound? We are not there yet, but vigilance is essential. The level of transmission of the virus, R, has slightly exceeded 1, that is to say that on average each infected person contaminates a little more than one person. “It means that the virus continues to circulate and that the epidemic is progressing slowly”, explains Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier. By imagining (pure hypothesis) an absence of health response and collective effort, “If the R increases to 1.5 and stays there, hospital services will be congested in two months and we will reach a new peak in three months. But this saturation could be postponed beyond December if R remains below 1.2. We have clearly seen since the end of confinement that a certain number of actions could be effective in limiting the spread of the disease. ”

While containment was lifted on the 11

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