IRG SGH: In the fourth quarter, a downturn in Polish agriculture

“In the fourth quarter of 2021, there was a downturn in Polish agriculture. The value of the agricultural climate index IRG SGH (IRGAGR) decreased compared to the third quarter by 13.6 points, to -11.7 points. It is lower than in the previous year by 6.2 points During the quarter, the values ​​of both components of the business climate index decreased: the equal cash income ratio, by 7.1 points, to the level of -8.6 points, and the confidence index, by 26.5 points, to the level of – 17.8 points The values ​​of both ratios are lower than a year ago by 1.6 and 15.4 points, respectively. A decrease in revenues at this time of year is a typical phenomenon; the average change in the value of the equal cash income ratio in the fourth quarter is -1, 7 points. The worsening of the economic situation is therefore mainly the result of a very strong collapse in the mood of farmers “- it was written in the commentary to the survey.

“This is the largest drop in the value of the confidence index in the history of the agricultural survey, higher (by 3.1 points) than that recorded in the second quarter of 2020 (resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic), and the current level of farm sentiment is the lowest than 20 years “- added.

The authors of the report indicated that the deterioration of the economic situation on a quarterly and annual scale is common, regardless of the type of farms. According to the researchers, they were most severely affected by farms located in the northern macroregion (a decline in the value of the economic situation index by 17.6 points), with an area of ​​15-50 ha (by 15.5 points) and farms dealing with animal breeding and breeding (by 20.8 points). point).

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In addition, the lowest levels for nearly a decade have been achieved by expenditure on the purchase of concentrated feed, artificial fertilizers and plant protection products.

“Farmers’ forecasts regarding the development of the situation in the next quarter are very pessimistic. There is great uncertainty in Polish agriculture” – it was noted.

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