Iran Nuclear Negotiations Face New Obstacles Amidst Rising Tensions

Washington D.C. – Nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran are at a critical juncture, facing renewed challenges as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) raises concerns about Iran’s adherence to its nuclear commitments.The IAEA, for the first time in twenty years, has concluded that Iran has not kept its nuclear promises, increasing pressure on Tehran as it engages in talks with the US [1]. Simultaneously,the threat of potential military action by Israel looms,further complicating the already tense situation.

IAEA Findings Sour US-Iran Nuclear Talks

The timing of the IAEA resolution has further strained the atmosphere, with Iran denouncing it as a political maneuver to corner the nation. The resolution alleges that Iran has failed to provide necessary data regarding steadfast nuclear material to the IAEA.According to Iran expert Peyman Jafari, the findings relate to issues from 25 years ago, suggesting pressure from the US, Great Britain, France, and Germany influenced the resolution. The adoption of this resolution could pave the way for the reinstatement of United Nations sanctions,which would severely impact Iran’s economy [2].

Did You know? The IAEA was founded in 1957 in response to the deep fears and expectations generated by the discoveries in the nuclear field.

Iran’s Response and Potential Withdrawal from NPT

In response to the potential reimposition of sanctions,Iran has threatened to withdraw from the International Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),a treaty designed to limit the spread of nuclear weapons while permitting the use of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes,such as energy production. Jafari warns that such a move would be perilous, eliminating all oversight and potentially allowing Iran to advance its nuclear program further and deeper underground, bringing the region closer to war.

Pro Tip: The NPT, which came into force in 1970, is a landmark international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament.

Israel’s potential Military Action Against Iran

Adding another layer of complexity, American and European officials suggest that Israel is considering an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. NRC columnist Carolien Roelants notes that this possibility is not new, as Israel has contemplated such action for decades. Prime Minister Netanyahu might see the current circumstances as an opportune moment, believing he can act with impunity given perceived support from President Trump and the EU.Furthermore, an attack on Iran could help Israel regain international support, which has waned due to the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Possible Scenarios Following an Israeli Attack

Iran has vowed to retaliate fiercely against any Israeli attack, potentially launching long-range missiles at Israel, similar to actions taken last October. Additionally, Iran has cautioned that American bases in the region could also become targets. There are approximately 45,000 US soldiers stationed in the Middle east,prompting the US to initiate a partial evacuation of non-essential personnel from the American embassy in Iraq for safety reasons.

Negotiation Tactics and the Future of the Nuclear Deal

Roelants and Jafari characterize these threats as part of the negotiation process, with each party attempting to exert maximum pressure. For instance, Trump is reportedly threatening attacks if Iran does not concede to American demands. Though, Roelants points out that the US likely seeks to avoid a large-scale war in the Middle East. The current nuclear deal is a point of contention, with Trump seeking to finalize an agreement he previously discarded in 2018. While former President Biden attempted to forge a new deal, Trump now demands an agreement based on an adapted version of it.

Roelants expresses skepticism about the upcoming negotiations, noting Trump’s firm stance that Iran should not be allowed to enrich uranium.Iran, however, maintains its right to enrichment under the nuclear non-proliferation agreement, asserting that its uranium is solely for civil purposes, such as energy. Jafari shares this pessimism, stating that both countries are entrenched in their positions, jeopardizing the talks. The critical question remains: how much pressure will the US apply to force Iran to capitulate, and what will happen if these efforts fail?