Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) rose 1.53% to 7,042.94 this week although it was still overshadowed by negative signals related to the increase in interest rates by the United States Central Bank (Federal Reserve / The Fed) which could trigger a recession.
The psychology of foreign investors currently tends to go home after the Fed said it could raise its benchmark interest rate (Fed Funds Rate) by 75 basis points (bp) after an increase of the same amount this month.
They also scored net sales (net sell) worth IDR 4.2 trillion for a week across all markets. The following is a sentiment that must be observed as it determines the direction of the market next week.
Sentiment first The thing to watch out for will appear next Monday, originating from within the country, namely the Indonesian money supply (M2) as of May. The increase in the money position means that liquidity is still safe in the real sector.
Then, market attention will shift to Europe where the regional central bank (European Central Bank/ECB) will hold a meeting that coincides with the meeting of the G7 member countries which will take place in Denmark. It is worth noting the sentiment second of their leaders who tend to exacerbate the world supply crisis.
On Tuesday, markets will be watching ECB President Christine Lagarde’s sentimental speech third which should be observed, followed by data on the US trade balance as of May, and the US consumer confidence index as of June.
EU consumer confidence index as of June on sentiment fourth which deserves attention because it is predicted to continue to strengthen at 3.5% year-on-year despite slowing down with a monthly growth of 0.4% (from April’s position of 0.8%).
On Wednesday attention turns to the United States (US) where the forthcoming quarter I-2022 economic growth will be the sentiment fifth which affects the market, because it is predicted to contract or minus 1.5% after the previous quarter shot 6.9%. Market volatility will increase today especially after the speech of the Fed’s boss Jerome Powell.
Sentiment sixth still carrying bad winds, namely the release of the China’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) version of the NVS, which is predicted to contract from 49.6 in the previous month to 48.3 in June.
Sentiment followed seventh, namely the UK’s economic growth per quarter I-2022 which is predicted to grow 0.8% on a monthly basis, slowing from the previous quarter which grew 1.3%. Annual economic growth is predicted at 8.7% from the previous 6.6%.
From the US, there will be sentiment eighth namely the release of the individual spending index (personal consumption expenditure/PCE) as of May which is forecast at 6.7% on an annual basis and 0.9% on a monthly basis, according to consensus Tradingeconomics. Both increased from the previous month which were 6.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Sentiment ninth emerged from Indonesia, where S&P Global released its June version of the manufacturing PMI Index which is predicted to be still expansive at 50.5 from the previous figure of 50.8. Simultaneously, Caixin published the manufacturing PMI in China as of June which is predicted to grow 50.5 or improve from May’s position which is still contracting 48.1.
Sentiment final emerging from the country, namely inflation data for June which according to Refinitiv’s consensus will grow 4.14% from May’s position of 3.55%. On the same day, the US manufacturing sector PMI index as of June, the ISM version, will be released and is predicted to remain expansionary at 55, although slightly depressed from 56.1 in the previous month.
CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM
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