Inumet and Metsul warn of a possible cyclone for Tuesday: know what can happen – Information – 05/14/2022

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As reported this Friday by the Uruguayan Institute of Meteorology (Inumet), “the numerical prediction models are projecting the formation of a extratropical cyclonewhich in this case will have an atypical behavior for our latitudes, migrating to a subtropical cyclone“. The phenomenon will be concentrated on the east coast of Uruguay.

This Saturday, the Brazilian service Metsul added his warning for “a potential high risk weather situation in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina between Tuesday (17) and Wednesday (18) due to an unusual situation in which a cyclone with atypical trajectory and characteristics advances from the sea towards the continental with the threat of very strong winds with intense gusts for several hours, with the danger of structural damage and disruption of public services”.

Although they indicate that “there are still many uncertainties about the evolution of this cyclone, the data set already allows us to anticipate the possibility of strong to intense winds in the south and east of Rio Grande do Sul.” “In the worst case scenarios that the models indicate, the risk of impacts is severe,” he adds.

Metsul adds that this meteorological scenario “should be viewed with great concern due to the risks that this cyclone implies”, also because it presents “atypical” elements, as indicated by Inumet in its report.

“One of the atypical elements of this system will be its trajectory,” says the Brazilian service, explaining that the models “point to the same scenario in which a retrograde low pressure advances from the sea towards the continent, which is very unusual.” . “Normally, cyclones that form off the coast of southern Brazil or around Uruguay or the coast of Buenos Aires they advance to the southeast and east, away from the mainland. This one, on the contrary, in what is absolutely unusual, will observe an opposite trajectory. The data indicates that will move from the sea to land“, he adds.

The country consulted Néstor Santayana, head of forecasting at Inumetwho explained that from Monday the weather will be unstable, with cold and precipitation, and there will be a increase in wind intensity“because we are going to have the cyclone forming, but quite far from the coast.”

“This cyclone on Tuesday begins to approach the east of the country and that leads to increased intensity of rainfall, waves in the south and east of the country and the wind. strongest winds will take place during the day on Tuesday and we anticipate that in Maldonado and Rocha there could be gusts between 90 and 130 km/hSantayana said.

“In the coming days and with more updates, it will be possible to know if this intensity is maintained, decreased or increased,” said the expert, noting that it is important for people to stay informed.

“Inumet has already informed the National Emergency System, the Departmental Emergency Coordination Centers and the decision makers of the early warning system to take precautions,” said Santayana.

The models handled by Metsul

“The low pressure zone that crosses the south of Brazil with rain this weekend will advance towards the ocean on Sunday (15) and will quickly move away from the continent, moving away from the coast of Rio Grande do Sul. Then, suddenly, the low pressure area would take a turn and begin to move towards the continent, observing a retrograde trajectory and intensifying very quickly as a cyclone Initially, according to yesterday’s model outputs, the cyclone would reach the coast of Uruguay, especially the department Uruguayan de Rocha, and then to Chuí and Santa Vitória do Palmar,” says Metsul.

In any case, he adds: “One of the points of uncertainty regarding this system is its trajectory as it passes through southern Brazil. Depending on the path it takes, the impacts can be minor or severe. There is still a great divergence between the numerical models, which makes forecasting very difficult at the moment and will require the public and policymakers to pay close attention to forecast updates.”

Cyclones are normal in Uruguay

The country is in cyclone formation zone“It is not something that is abnormal to happen, there always was and there will be,” Santayana said this Friday, noting that these are more frequent between autumn and spring. Most of them are extratropical, but in recent years there was the particularity that one of them made a transition and became subtropical and now it is happening again.

Asked if one is more intense or potentially destructive than the other, Inumet’s chief forecaster said no. “They are different,” he said. “The fact that it is subtropical does not imply that it is stronger, but it is noteworthy that it occurs in these areas, and it is noteworthy because it is the second in a year,” he added.

In 2021 the subtropical cyclone was named “Raoni”

As Inumet recalls, on June 30, 2021, the subtropical cyclone called “Raoni” affected the Uruguayan Atlantic coast with very intense winds and strong waves. That was, he adds, one of the first of its kind (subtropical) in Uruguay in recent years.

Inumet image of subtropical cyclone Raoni
Inumet image of subtropical cyclone Raoni

At that time, the institute reported on the trajectory of Cyclone Raoni: it began on the coasts of Argentina and Uruguay, and then moved towards the coast of Brazil, where it entered the weakening phase.

In Uruguay, “wind gusts ranged between 60-80 km/h in the southern and eastern departments, reaching a maximum of 104 km/h at the Meteorological Station of Punta del Este (Maldonado).

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