Home » Business » Insurance Bank Investment Zhang Zhiwei: Medium and long-term firm optimistic about short-term relative cautious Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares

Insurance Bank Investment Zhang Zhiwei: Medium and long-term firm optimistic about short-term relative cautious Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares

Original title: Insurance Bank Investment Zhang Zhiwei: Firmly optimistic in the medium and long term, relatively cautious in the short term, Hong Kong stocks may outperform A shares

Summary

[Insurance Investment Zhang Zhiwei: In the medium and long term, Hong Kong stocks are firmly optimistic about the short-term and relatively cautious. Hong Kong stocks may outperform A shares]Entering 2021, looking forward to the future, Insurance Bank’s view of the market is: the medium and long-term are firm and optimistic, and the short-term is relatively cautious. share. (China Fund News)

Entering 2021, looking forward tomarketThe view is: Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares if they are firm and optimistic in the medium and long term and relatively cautious in the short term.

First of all, from the perspective of the next three to five years, China’s capitalmarket expectationoptimism. China is promoting a new round of reform and opening up.China joined the RCEP last year and reached an agreement with EuropeinvestmentAgreement, this year is preparing to launch a registration system for the stock market, and at the same time is discussing and studying joining the CPTPP. This series of reforms and opening up measures with substantial content will help China improveTFP.It will also make China’s capital market more efficient.International InvestmentThe other is more attractive.Local state-owned enterprisesBondThe event of default broke the belief of just redeeming and made investors correctly recognize the risks in the financial marketPricing.And in previous high-level economicsmeetingIn China, the policy principle of emphasizing housing and non-speculation has produced structural benefits to the domestic equity market.

The epidemic that began to spread globally last year is a disaster in human history.Different countries’ central banks respond to different measures, and objectively they will have far-reaching and different impacts on the financial markets of these countries. In developed countries, central banks relax on a large scale.currencyPolicies that make long-terminterest rateStay at an unprecedented low level. And the Central Bank of China maintains its strength,National debtThe long-term rate of return quickly returned to a high level,RMBThe exchange rate has also been strengthening. This has improved the status of Chinese assets relative to the global market, laying a foundation for the sustainable development of China’s capital market in the future.

From the perspective of three to six months, our view of the market is relatively cautious. The successful development of vaccines in the past few months and the results of the US general election have given the stock market a strong impetus, and expectations of economic recovery have been fully reflected in stock prices. From a valuation perspective, the domestic stock market is already at a historically relatively high level. Looking ahead, the biggest risk facing the market is the tightening of domestic monetary policy.

In the past, Chinese and foreign central banks rarely discussed whether there was a bubble in the stock market, and the general discussion of monetary policy was limited toReal economy.This time, Ma Jun, the central bank’s monetary policy committee member, made it clear in January that he was worried about the bubble in the stock market, and the central bank immediately tightened liquidity to push up the market.interest rate. In the past, central banks would inject liquidity into the market before the Spring Festival. This time they did the opposite, sending a clear signal to the market that monetary policy has turned.

Voices about the withdrawal of monetary policy continued to be heard last year, and the year-end economicjobsThe “no sharp turn” proposed at the meeting also hinted at policy changes. The focus of current market concern is whether the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policy after the Spring Festival. In fact, no matter how soon or later, the tightening of central bank policies has been basically determined.especiallyCreditAnd currency data will appear in the next few monthsYoYSignificantly decreased.It should be pointed out that due to the overall increase in the debt ratio of the economy, once the monetary policy margin tightens, there will be someenterpriseIncreased debt risk. Therefore, the A-share market may face higher uncertainty in the coming months.

The topic of our monthly report to investors in December was “Hong Kong stocks may perform better than A shares.” We still maintain this judgment today.expectedChina’s monetary policyTightening was an important reason for our judgment at that time. In the next few months, the monetary policy trends of China and the United States will diverge further, and Hong Kong stocks may benefit more from overseas loose monetary policies.If Sino-US relations emerge in the next few monthsimproveSigns of the Hong Kong stock market will also be relatively positive. In the past month, we have been able to see a large amount of funds flowing into the Hong Kong market from the mainland, which may reflect that investors have already made arrangements in advance.

(Article source: ChinafundNewspaper)

(Editor in charge: DF358)

Solemnly declare: The purpose of this information released by Oriental Fortune.com is to spread more information and has nothing to do with this stand.

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