Institute for the Study of War: – Against the Kremlin says:

In a new report, the think tank writes Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that it may appear that the Kremlin is using a new move to solicit support for the war in Ukraine.

– It seems that the Kremlin is laying the information groundwork for a “false flag” attack on Belgorod in Russia, the think tank writes.

Belgorod is an area close to Russia’s border with Ukraine, and has already felt the effects of Russia’s war of invasion into Ukraine several times.

It happened before

Last month was one skyscraper in Belgorod destroyed.

Russian authorities claimed that this was the result of a Ukrainian attack, while Ukrainian media claimed that it was precisely a “false flag” attack carried out by Russia itself.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Russia has repeatedly claimed that Ukrainian forces are behind the attacks on Russian territory, and in particular in Belgorod.

It is not easy to establish who is behind these events, but it has often been speculated whether the Russian authorities carry them out false flag attack. to strengthen the population’s support for the war.

This could also be what the Kremlin is trying to achieve now, the ISW report believes, and for several reasons.

Ridiculous and fantastic speculations

ISW believes the Kremlin is speculating to heighten fears of a Ukrainian invasion of Russia in an effort to win back support for the war.

According to the report, there has been growing dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine among the Russian population, especially among relatives of military personnel.

– The growing desire for demobilization among the relatives of the mobilized men suggests that Russian propaganda has been ineffective in the face of the real consequences of the war on society, the report’s authors write.

Lieutenant Colonel Geir Hågen Karlsen visits the Dagbladet TV studio to discuss the war in Ukraine on 23 November. Program manager: Magnus Paus
sea ​​View

Another group dissatisfied with Russia’s war effort, albeit for entirely different reasons, are the country’s most extreme nationalists.

– These ludicrous and fantastical speculations about a Ukrainian invasion of Russia could also be part of the Kremlin’s efforts to appease the nationalist section of society, the report said.

That Ukraine actually wages such an invasion war against Russia is described as highly unlikely.

– Ukraine has no strategic interest in invading Russia and no ability to accomplish anything of this magnitude, write the report’s authors.

– Absolutely unlikely

Lieutenant Colonel and Dean of the Norwegian Defense Academy Geir Hågen Karlsen believes, like the ISW report, that a Ukrainian invasion of Russia is highly unlikely.

– I think the chance of that is very, very small. First, I think they are prioritizing the resources they have towards real goals in Ukraine. Second, I think they know they risked undermining the support they have in the West, Karlsen tells Dagbladet.

He also points out that the use of disinformation is nothing new for the Kremlin.

UNLIKELY: Geir Hågen Karlsen believes rumors of a war of invasion of Ukraine by Russia are unlikely to have any particular effect.  Photo: Knut Støvne / The Armed Forces / NTB

UNLIKELY: Geir Hågen Karlsen believes rumors of a war of invasion of Ukraine by Russia are unlikely to have any particular effect. Photo: Knut Støvne / The Armed Forces / NTB
sea ​​View

– This adds to the series of what we have seen for a long time. The entire war is based on Russian disinformation – this has been the strategy from the beginning, the lieutenant colonel believes.

However, he believes this specific rumor is unlikely to have a major effect.

– I don’t see that it will make any difference qualitatively. It’s not like they can just spread disinformation and expect it to have a violent effect. It’s entirely unlikely that anything will change, says Karlsen.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.