A Chinese septuagenarian from Hubei contracted the coronavirus that appeared in late December 2019 in this province of China, but did not develop the symptoms until twenty-seven days later, local authorities said on Saturday 22 February. Reuters press.
According to the provincial government, the patient was contacted by his sick sister on January 24. He had a fever on February 20 and the virus was detected in his body the following day.
The scientific community estimates the incubation period for Covid-19 at around ten days, less time than the case reported in Hubei. What complicate the efforts made to contain the spread of the epidemic, which killed more than 2,300 people in China and abroad ?
“There may be, exceptionally, longer incubations”, recognizes Professor Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur, interviewed by The world. “Still, one should be sure that this person did not have any other infectious contact during the 14 days preceding the onset of symptoms. “
Because, says Professor Yazdan Yazdanpanah, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department at Bichat hospital in Paris, it is sometimes difficult to determine the date of infection to calculate the duration of the incubation, which separates it from that the onset of symptoms.
“The fourteen day recommendation seems appropriate”
However, this type of case does not call into question the containment strategies of the epidemic, argues Professor Fontanel.
“Today, all estimates converge to an average incubation period of six days and a maximum of twelve days. The fourteen day recommendation for quarantine seems appropriate. “
“If there were other similar cases, we could end the quarantine with a warning message for symptoms after the end of the official quarantine – which is probably already done in many places “, He continues, stressing that “14 days is already a very long time for people in quarantine and the health services who have to follow it up”.
Professor Yazdanpanah: He abounds: it is always possible that there are extreme cases where the duration of incubation is greater than the usual range. Nevertheless, he insists, to manage the response to an epidemic and end it, we must focus on the 99% of cases that are within the range and not disorganize everything to adjust to a few exceptional cases.
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