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How to improve the development of the epidemic by Christmas? Only a strict lockdown, scientists say Home

Prague According to the Center for Modeling of Biological and Social Processes BISOP, a strict lockdown, ie a larger closing date of the company, is needed to improve the development of the epidemic by Christmas. It should also include a ban on meeting people outside work and family, the center said in a press release. The research team of the center consists of seventeen scientists from the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Charles University and the CERGE-EI institute.

“Our models, as well as the spring experience, show that the safe way for restrictions to start easing in six to eight weeks is to reduce people-to-people contacts and personal protection at the March 2020 level,” he said. press release its executive director René Levínský.

Such a reduction would mean a 60 to 70 percent reduction in contacts, a 50 to 60 percent presence in the workplace, the wearing of veils, and a high level of compliance with personal protective measures.

According to available data from PAQ, which addresses a representative sample of the company every two weeks and detects changes in its behavior during the pandemic, but workplace contacts were reduced by 40 percent by the week to October 25, with 88 percent worn by veils, but other measures followed only. 55 percent of people. In March, there were 67 percent of them.

“If last week’s situation persisted, it would mean stagnation in both the number of infected and the unhappy situation in healthcare,” Levínský added. According to him, the total number of deaths would probably exceed 10,000 by the end of the year.

However, if the number of contacts were further reduced to the level of March and people adhered to the measures, he said, the daily number of new cases could fall to about a thousand at the end of December, “which is the number at which restrictions could be gradually relaxed thanks to the regained traceability. , “He said.

The models of the center show that the measures taken this week will not be sufficient either, because work, friendly contacts and family visits are not fundamentally limited. It will depend on how responsibly companies approach the government regulation to allow work from home. BISOP estimates a 50 percent reduction in contacts.

According to him, such a scenario will lead to a significant decrease in the number of infected people, and from mid-November also to a decrease in the number of hospitalizations and a smaller number of deaths, but the decrease will be slower. “Reaching the thousand limit at Christmas is unlikely and is postponed until 2021, the daily number of deaths is almost non-declining,” Levínský added, adding that the model takes into account the current strict measures until a decrease to 1,000 cases per day.

With the so-called hard lockdown, ie an enforceable ban on visits between households and an increase in the proportion of people working from home, the improvement should come in a matter of weeks. They refer to the experience of Wales or Israel. If the measures were tightened next week, they reduced contacts by 65 percent and people also protected themselves as much as possible, four weeks would be enough and the number of infected people would stabilize at the end of November.

The models of the Institute of Health Information and Statistics predict the development according to the daily number of new positively tested and have four possible scenarios according to the reproduction number from 1.47 to 0.73. The reproduction number (R) indicates the average number of other persons who become infected from one positive test subject. It is currently about 1.36. If the situation worsened, there would be 60,000 positive tests per day around November 8. Slightly better than the current R at 1.29 would lead to 50,000 positives daily in mid-November. An improvement to 1.1 would mean a gradual increase to around 20,000 in mid-November. By lowering R below one, new cases would begin to decrease daily.

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