Toh, now even the lords of the rating are “forced” to admit that the prospects, with Giorgia Meloni in government, so catastrophic they are not. Indeed, far from it. Indeed, now it turns out that the Italian economy it will grow by 3.7% in 2022 to then contract by 0.1% in 2023. That is the estimate just released by Fitch, the rating giant which revised upwards the forecast for next year from the previous -0.7 percent. In short, a clear and very evident change of pace. The classification agency maintained its expectation of a decline in GDP from the fourth quarter of this year due to “the country’s high exposure” to gas price and supply shocks and the impact of the increase of prices on private consumption”.
“Some industrial sectors – continues Fitch in the report just released – have reduced production significantly, with production of base metals and chemicals declining by 6.6% and 9.4% year on year in September, leading to an overall decline of 0.4% in industrial production in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second, but the economy has so far been somewhat more resilient than expected to the energy shock. In the third quarter of 2022the economy grew by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted and calendar-adjusted basis, with a positive contribution from inventories and continued strong growth in household consumption, partly offset by rising imports. The contribution of net trade was negative. According to Istat, real household disposable income has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2021 but it was supported by government programs to offset rising energy bills. Survey data rebounded in November, with consumer confidence picking up, in what may have been a reaction to the announced decline in energy bills linked to wholesale prices and a change in the mechanism for determining them. In 2023 and 2024, the business will benefit from spending linked to the Recovery and Resilience Plan, even if its implementation is taking longer than expected.
And again, continues the document released by the rating agency, inflation increased by 3.2 percentage points in October“bringing the annual HICP rate to 12.6 per cent. It fell to 12.5 per cent in November. The index measures the prices of gas, electricity and domestic fuels jumped by 46 per cent, representing the largest part of the October increase”. Fitch then raised the “short-term inflation forecasts compared to September, but it is probable”, say the agency’s analysts, that “month-by-month deflation will occur which will bring inflation down from this peak in the first half of the 2012. As elsewhere”, conclude the gentlemen of the rating.