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How many people are infected on average?

March 24, 2020 – 4:20 pm

How contagious are individual infectious diseases?

For everyone: To protect ourselves and others, we currently stay at home. The risk of contracting the corona virus is great. But how many people are infected with Covid-19? We make a comparison with flu, measles, etc.

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Infectious diseases infection rate in comparison

Similar to the flu, the coronavirus is transmitted via the droplet or smear infection. The virus is passed on to other people primarily through hand contact, coughing up or sniffing.

The Helmholtz Center for Infection Research (HZI) compared the preliminary infection rate of Covid-19 with other diseases. On the basis of the so-called basic reproduction number, also called R0 value, you can see how many people are infected on average in the event of illness. For example, if the R0 value is 2, then one patient transfers the infection to two other people.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the R0 value of Covid-19 is estimated to be 2-3. The HZI even says that the value is slightly higher, namely 2-4. By the way, the values ​​that are known for the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1919 are similar.

The average number of people infected with a disease:

  • Ebola: 1.5 to 2 people
  • Seasonal flu: 1.5 people
  • Smallpox: 3 to 5 people
  • Measles: 13 to 18 people
  • Sars: 2 to 4 people
  • Mers: 0.8 to 8 people
  • Covid-19: 2 to 4 people

Important: Not only the virus itself is responsible for the risk of infection. Political and social behavior can also affect how many people become infected.

Difficult to compare with other infectious diseases

But why is the corona virus currently more dangerous compared to infections such as measles or smallpox – which have a much higher infection rate? This is mainly due to three factors: long incubation period, high morale and lack of vaccination.

Long incubation period

The average incubation period for Covid-19 is 5.1 days. However, it is also possible that 11.5 days pass from the infection to the appearance of the first symptoms. Isolating possible transmitters is therefore very difficult. Because even if the transmitter has no symptoms, a transmission from person to person can take place. For comparison: The incubation period for seasonal flu is around 1-2 days, according to the Robert Koch Institute.

High mortality rate

The mortality rate – also known as the mortality rate – indicates how many deaths there were from a particular disease in the course of an observation period. How many people die from the consequences of a Covid-19 infection can only be estimated so far. In China, the WHO estimates that 3.4% of those infected die – in Italy, the figure is currently up to 5%.

However, some experts also consider these numbers too high. Some infected people show only slight or no symptoms, which is why they cannot be tested at all. These people are then missing from the statistics, which makes the numbers inaccurate. With seasonal flu, the mortality rate is usually below 0.1 percent, according to the WHO.

A vaccine has yet to be developed

So far there is no vaccine and medication for Covid-19, even if possible vaccines are already in the test phase. However, you can get vaccinated against various influenza viruses. While this does not protect us against Covid-19, it prevents other lung infections. This makes us more immune to infection with Sars-CoV-2, according to the Berlin Health Administration, which issued a corresponding recommendation. Experts particularly advise older and chronically ill people to get vaccinated against whooping cough, pneumococci and also against the regular flu.

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