The 2,000 threshold is getting closer: Lslow but steadily increasing in Germany dthe number of new infections with the coronavirus. How long can this go well?
The spread of the Coronavirus under control in Germany: schools are reopened, even vacation abroad is possible again. There is hardly any talk of hotspots in August. But another trend worries scientists: the virus is slowly spreading across the area – and the number of new infections is increasing. But how many such cases can the health system withstand in the long term?
The virus is spreading across the country
The number of counties that have not received any new ones in the past seven days Covid-19Cases reported, was still at 125 in mid-July. About a month later, according to the RKI, there are only around 20 districts. “Because people have been moving a lot more and going on vacation in recent weeks, the virus has spread across the country,” explains Max Geraedts, who works at the University of Marburg’s Institute for Health Services Research and Clinical Epidemiology directs.
Much more communities and districts are now feeling the effects of the corona virus. Geraedt’s concern is that this trend could lead to many people in many places at the same time quarantine would have to. “But we actually need them in many places in our society – whether as a teacher, daycare worker or caregiver,” emphasizes the professor.
Politicians have long recognized the situation. Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) to be met with the Prime Ministers of the Länder. In June they had the last time about the course in the Corona-Krise Voted. Merkel recently described the increasing number of corona cases as worrying, but still manageable.
Corona new infections: Highest value since the end of April
The health authorities in Germany recently reported 1,427 new infections within one day, as the RKI announced on Friday morning. On Thursday, the RKI reported 1,707 cases, the highest value since the end of April. However, this is still far from the previous high point with more than 6,000 new infections daily between the end of March and the beginning of April.
One of the most important means of containing the spread of the virus is through contact tracing. It is a “very, very powerful instrument,” says Viola Priesemann, scientist at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen – especially if the pursuit is carried out quickly.
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The health authorities are central to the follow-up. Rising numbers of infections and the testing of returning travelers have recently led to a greater volume of work in the offices, confirmed the chairwoman of the Federal Association of Doctors in the Public Health Service (BVÖGD), Ute Teichert, at the beginning of August.
The workload is not yet at the level of March or April. The problem is still the personnel situation. Assistants from administration, for example, have now mostly returned to their actual places of work. “If the numbers rise again, the health authorities will therefore need more staff to help track the chains of infection,” said Teichert.
That is the tipping point in the system
Because one thing should be prevented as far as possible: that the number of new infections exceeds the capacity of the health authorities. This is a tipping point in the system, says Priesemann. “When this tipping point occurs, the number of cases increases even faster and the virus is even more difficult to recapture,” explains the researcher. Because the follow-up is then no longer as effective as before. “It’s like a tug-of-war, when suddenly someone can no longer pull along.”
In the opinion of the experts, that is not yet the case. “We have not yet reached this tipping point because we are not yet in the phase of explosive growth,” says Geraedts. But can you estimate how far it is until then?
“Nobody knows exactly where the tipping point is at which the situation can no longer be well controlled. There is not a single number of new infections from which the contacts can no longer be traced,” explains Priesemann, who deals with strategies to contain the Coronavirus busy. In addition to the capacity of the health authorities, further development also depends on the behavior of the population.
“Because with technology such as contact tracking and testing, we can only compensate for the spread dynamics – according to our model calculations – to some extent,” says Priesemann. Instead, each individual can make a contribution: “If you have symptoms, you stay at home. And if you have actually tested positive, you can possibly inform friends and acquaintances with whom you have been in contact yourself.”
Even in the intensive care units, the increasing number of corona cases has not yet led to a significant increase in occupancy. The clinics are therefore still a long way from a “threatening situation”, says the President of the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (DIVI), Uwe Janssens. Decisions could be made at another meeting between Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) and the prime ministers of the federal states.
One reason is that it is currently mainly younger people who are infected with the virus who are less likely to contract Covid-19. Also passed after one infection usually 13 to 14 days until a seriously ill person ends up in an intensive care unit. “It will therefore take about one to two weeks before we feel the increase in the current corona cases in the intensive care units,” says Janssens.
What happens in autumn and winter?
The intensive care physician is more concerned about the currently increasing number of cases with a view to autumn and winter. “We also have to remember that there is not just the coronavirus. We know that autumn will come, winter with the Influenza and the Norovirus“explains the chief physician. The then increasing diseases of the upper and lower respiratory tract will make it difficult to distinguish them from Covid-19.
“That will present us with additional challenges”, Janssens is certain. Everything that now serves to slow down the increase in the number of infections is helpful for autumn.
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