Using historical data, a UCL research team found that the infection rates of three common coronaviruses in England appear to follow a seasonal pattern, with peaks in winter and broadly occurring at the same time as the flu
The researchers found that only small amounts of the coronavirus were transmitted in summer
The study, published today in Wellcome Open Research as a preprint prior to peer review, uses data from the Flu Watch community cohort study from 2006 to 2011. First author Dr
Rob Aldridge (UCL Institute of Health Informatics) said: “COVID-19 is a disease caused by the new SARS-CoV2 coronavirus, but other related viruses have been around for some time
When we started collecting data in 2006, there were at least three common corona viruses in the UK. ”He and his colleagues used data that their team had previously collected from the cohort study to understand whether it was winter or summer there were more infections from these corona viruses
They also examined whether people were infected with these common coronaviruses more than once, knowing that this information could show whether people had developed immunity to the virus. ”Our results support the idea that we will have one in the UK in the summer sustained but less transmission of corona viruses, but this could reverse in winter when there is still a large vulnerable population at this time, “said Dr
Aldridge.
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