If in the coming days there is no unexpected deterioration in the course of events in Belarus, e.g. the first volley of snipers with live ammunition to the crowd, the world’s reactions to the events in this country will be very moderate. Jan Rokita comments on the latest events in Belarus in the new issue of the weekly ‘Sieci’.
Lukashenka’s actions
The columnist admits that the scale of violence and repression launched by the Minsk tyrant in defense of his power is – it must be admitted – quite moderate.
After all, Lukashenka’s “Baćka” is not Yanukovych, who, while defending the government, did not hesitate to order snipers to shoot the rebellious crowd. He points out that 3 thousand. people arrested (according to official data) by the police during the evening and night of August 9/10 is the result of an unprecedented number of sudden protests in Belarus, rather than some more specific than usual violence by the authorities. And although the head of the Lukashenka investigators, Noskiewicz, threatens that the arrested are facing 8 to 15 years in prison, most of them have probably already been or will soon be released with some not too heavy penalties. Probably due to the need to intimidate the opponents, the regime will launch some spectacular show trials, in which prison sentences will be issued.
Violent but soft
The author forecasts further actions of Lukashenka:
It seems that Lukashenka is determined to defend the tyranny system he has created in Belarus. But as long as it is possible, it will use relatively soft violence for this purpose, in Belarusian conditions sufficient to effectively defend the system. This is also evidenced by the skillful resolution of the presidency issue by forcing the opponent, who declared herself the winner of the election on Monday, to flee the country.
A repeat from Maidan?
Rokita compares this situation to the 2013 Maidan events:
What strikes in the post-election rebellion of Belarusians is its depoliticization, so radically different from the Ukrainian Maidan of 2013. Here and there, the election fraud made by the ruling tyrant’s camp was the trigger. However, while the rebellion in Ukraine quickly acquired the features of an efficient political organization, emerging not only clear leadership, but also an extensive logistic apparatus of the Maidan, in Minsk we could observe the chaotic parades of young people wandering aimlessly around the city and finally crashing into one of the turn the street into a massive militia force.
What the Polish government is doing
A columnist for “Sieci” also discusses the activities of the Polish government:
It is obvious that Cichanouska, terrified and fleeing to Lithuania, cannot be a partner for diplomacy of any country, which – it seems – was not noticed by the rash Polish government. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Morawiecki exposed himself to the rejection of his Monday initiative to convene an urgent meeting of the European Council, and the message of the head of the Council – Belgian Michel – that EU heads of state will talk about Belarus at a routine meeting in a month was somewhat humiliating for Warsaw. […] Deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Paweł Jabłoński announced publicly that Poland “is a natural candidate for mediation.” And this despite the fact that it was obvious at first glance that there would be no mediation in Minsk, let alone with the participation of Poland. The author also wonders what impact the rigged elections and suppressed protests will have on the Kremlin’s strategy towards Lukashenka […]. For some time now, this strategy has been characterized by clear ambivalence […]. However, the longer Lukashenka’s tyranny continues in Minsk, the more likely it is that sooner or later Belarus will eventually become a full Russian protectorate. This obviousness is usually overlooked in Poland (and throughout the West) by those who would like to play a game with the Minsk tyrant, allegedly to weaken Moscow’s influence.
More in the latest issue of “Sieci”, on sale from August 17, 2020, also in the form of an e-release on http://www.wsieciprawdy.pl/e-wydanie.html.
We also invite you to subscribe to the weekly in the Friends Network – www.siecprzymaciol.pl and watch interesting broadcasts of Internet TV www.wPolsce.pl.
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