The population data of China’s local government shows that the birth rate is falling sharply last year. Experts warned that China is facing a fertility cliff and the population crisis is looming. In the future, China will face an aging population and a declining birthrate, which will bring challenges to the economy and society. They call for immediate and full liberalization of fertility and no further delays.
At a press conference held on January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics postponed the release of birth population data for 2020, indicating that it will release the 2020 census data in April. However, the birth statistics released by some local governments show that the birth population is declining, and in some places it has dropped by 32% compared with the same period in 2019.
According to the data published by various places, it is organized as follows:
area | Number of births in the whole year or the first few months of 2020 | Decrease compared to the same period in 2019 |
Wenzhou city | 73,230 people born throughout the year | -19.01% |
Hefei City | 79,300 births throughout the year | -23% |
Guangzhou City | 195,500 births throughout the year | About -9% |
Yinchuan | 29,956 births throughout the year | -11.9% |
Taizhou | 37,420 births throughout the year | -32.6% |
Pinghu | 2916 people born throughout the year | -21.17% |
Ningbo City | 17,945 people born with household registration in the first half of the year | -19.24 % |
Weifang | 34,139 born in the first half of the year | -25.8% |
Huangshan City | 6,766 born between January and July | -16.88% |
Guiyang City | 38,462 born between January and September | -31.6% |
Liang Jianzhang, the founder of Ctrip.com and a professor at Peking University Guanghua School of Management, wrote a few days ago that although the decline in the birth population in the above-mentioned regions cannot be deduced as the annual decline in the country, it is believed that in 2020, the accumulation of two children has weakened and the number of women of childbearing age has decreased. There is no suspense that the national birth population has dropped significantly compared to 2019. The birth population collapse has already arrived.
He warned that considering that the number of women of childbearing age in China will continue to decline in the future, and the willingness of Chinese people to have children will continue to decline in the future, “We can say that although the number of births in 2020 is the smallest year in recent decades, it is likely to be The year with the largest number of births in the next few decades (unless fertility is strongly encouraged and miraculous results are achieved in the future). In the future, China will no longer be able to have more than 14 million people born every year. Instead, it will rapidly slide below 10 million. If the fertility rate cannot be increased significantly, this decline will not bottom out.
Ren Zeping, chief economist of the Evergrande Group, also published the “China Fertility Report”, stating that the comprehensive two-child policy not only did not have a baby boom, but a birth cliff.
He pointed out that in 2016, the “comprehensive two-child” policy was implemented, and the birth population rose to 17.86 million that year, the highest since 2000, but it has fallen sharply since then. The number of births dropped to 17.25 million in 2017, another 2 million to 15.23 million in 2018, and 14.65 million in 2019. The number of people born in 2018 and 2019 hit a record low since 1949, except for the natural disasters from 1960 to 1961. In 2020, it will set a new record low. The current fertility situation is that the number of women of childbearing age is rapidly decreasing, the fertility rate has fallen sharply, and the willingness to give birth has been significantly reduced.
Refers to China’s entry into a deeply aging society with a proportion of over 14% next year
Ren Zeping said that China’s population aging is accelerating, and the speed is much faster than Europe, America and Japan. From 1962 to 1976, the baby boom population was about to withdraw from the labor market, entering an aging population, and the demographic dividend gradually disappeared. In terms of development trends, the speed and scale of China’s population aging are unprecedented. It will enter a deeply aging society accounting for more than 14% in 2022, and a super-aging society accounting for more than 20% around 2033, and then continue to rapidly increase to 2060. About 35% of the year.
The aging population and declining birthrate bring about a series of major and far-reaching challenges: the disappearance of the low-cost population dividend, the increase in labor costs, the decline in the potential economic growth rate, the decline in the young population, the decline in the vitality of social innovation and entrepreneurship, the solidification of the social class, the investment rate and savings Rates have fallen, the social dependency ratio and pension burden have increased, and government debt and social security pressure have risen.
Liang Jianzhang and Ren Ze equally called for the full liberalization of childbirth, and effectively reduce the burden of parenting for ordinary families in terms of housing costs, parenting costs and education.
Editor in charge: Kuai Yucheng
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