On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Belarus’ capital Minsk to demand the resignation of President Alexander Lukashenko. It can all end in bloody conflict, expert Inna Sangadzhieva predicts to Dagbladet.
NTB refers to the Belarusian journalist Franak Viačorka, who estimates that there may be up to 250,000 protesters in the streets, who are met by riot police with shields and water cannons.
Demonstrations are also taking place in neighboring Lithuania in solidarity with the opposition in Belarus. Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is also in exile there.
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conflict
Never before have so many Belarusians taken to the streets to demand change as they did last weekend. Never before has “Europe’s last dictator”, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, been pressured as hard as he is now.
But every time in recent history a country in Russia’s backyard has tried to free itself from the authoritarian links of the past, it has ended in bloody conflict.
It is also one of the scenarios Inna Sangadzhieva, a Russia and Belarus expert at the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, envisages happening in Belarus now.
“There has been a military conflict every time a country decides to leave Russia’s sphere of interest,” Sangadzhieva told Dagbladet.
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Strits against
She cites the war in eastern Ukraine, which began after the Ukrainian revolution in 2014, and the war between Russia and Georgia in 2008, as examples.
– Therefore, there has also been some speculation about whether Russia will intervene militarily in Belarus. For the Kremlin and Putin, it is desirable, ideologically speaking, that Belarus remains under Russian influence, says Sangadzhieva.
This does not necessarily mean that Russia will intervene militarily to secure Lukashenko’s position, but that is what Lukashenko himself has wanted to give the impression of this week.
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Russia turned around
Russia and Belarus have a military support pact, which states that an attack on one is an attack on both. Therefore, Belarus ‘Alexander Lukashenko has tried to create the impression that the country is soon under siege, by claiming that NATO troops are almost marching towards Belarus’ borders.
Both Russian and Belarusian authorities indicated earlier this week that a Russian intervention could be considered, and at about the same time, Vladimir Putin issued a brief but strong warning to the EU and the West in general:
Curved off the podium: – Get off!
– Do not interfere in Belarus, was the message from Putin to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
On Wednesday this week, the message from the Kremlin was toned down:
“It is true that both parties have certain obligations, but there is currently no need,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Reuters.
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Can not be ruled out
It will rather not be relevant for Russia to assist militarily, believes Arve Hansen, Belarus expert and doctor of East Slavic studies at the University of Tromsø (UiT).
– With so little legitimacy, both nationally and internationally, it is unlikely that Russia will try to save Lukashenko. A military intervention will only impose sanctions on Russia and increase internal opposition to the regime in Moscow. Therefore, it is far more likely that Russia is now trying to find a way to agree with the opposition on how a transfer of power should take place to ensure regional stability and Russian interests in the country, Hansen tells Dagbladet.
Up to 200,000 protesters in Minsk
However, he can not rule out a Russian intervention.
– If Russia intervenes in Belarus, it will then be far less clear than in Ukraine. I reckon that Russia prefers to use economic and political pressure rather than the military.
It is also not the case that Russia wants Alexander Lukashenko to remain in power, as long as they still have influence in Belarus, Inna Sangadzhieva points out
– But it is difficult to know what is sufficient. Should Lukashenko step down, Belarus needs a leader who has respect and legitimacy on both sides, both in the EU and in the West and in Russia. You have to tread very carefully, she says.
Who it may be will be one of the most important tasks the opposition now has to tackle.
“Now the opposition is trying to form a smaller coordination council that will negotiate with Lukashenko, where the goal is to conduct peaceful negotiations on his resignation,” Sangadzhieva said.
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“The battle is lost”
Both Hansen and Sangadzhieva believe that Alexander Lukashenko’s days as “Europe’s last dictator” will soon be over.
In practice, Sangadzhieva believes that “the battle is lost” for Lukashenko. Hansen agrees.
– It would surprise me if Lukashenko is still in power when this year ends, but no matter when and how it happens, the beginning of the end for this president has begun. His legitimacy as president has disappeared and the people of Belarus know it, as well as the Belarusian power apparatus and Lukashenko’s traditional supporters in Russia, Hansen says, adding:
Outraged Solberg warns of sanctions against Belarus
– The question now is how Lukashenko disappears. Will it be on its own, or by force?
What can determine that is how the apparatus around and under Lukashenko now reacts to the massive demonstrations in the country. Initially, they struck down hard, arresting over 7,000 protesters. Countless participants claim that they have been subjected to violence, and tell in detail about abuse in meetings with the security forces.
– The opposition demands that all culprits in the abuses against the protesters last week be prosecuted. So when the alternative to Lukashenko is imprisonment, it is clear that many will continue to protect him.
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