Summary
[Guo Shiliang: What is the logic that supports Moutai’s new high?]In the current market environment, the market is more concerned not about valuation factors, but more about growth, track and other issues. Under the background that the market value of giant companies in the US and Hong Kong stock markets continues to open the ceiling, the market value of giant companies in the A-share market also has room for further expansion. This is one of the reasons why capital continues to be optimistic about core assets such as Maotai.
In the currentmarketUnder the environment, the market is not paying more attention to valuation factors, but to issues such as growth and track. In U.S. stocks,Hong Kong stocksMarket giantenterpriseMarket valueAgainst the backdrop of constantly opening the ceiling,A crotchThere is also room for further expansion of the market value of the giants in the market. This is alsocapitalOne of the reasons for continuing to be optimistic about core assets such as Moutai.
As of February 4, as the first share of A sharesKweichow Moutai, Once again set a new high in market value and stock price since its listing, with a total market value approaching 3 trillion, which is higher than the second highest market valueICBC, Higher than the market value scale of about 1.1 trillion.
inKweichow MoutaiWhile setting a new high in market value, another liquor giantWuliangye, Ranking the sixth largest in the A-share market with a total market value of 1.22 trillion yuan. In the Shenzhen market,WuliangyeBelonging to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalizationthe company, Is also the only company with a market value of over one trillion in Shenzhen.
Among the top ten listed companies in the total market capitalization of A shares, two are liquor companies.In the past few years, the liquor sector has alsostockThe industry sector with the fastest rising market value.
However, behind the huge rise in the value of the liquor stock market, we have seen that the valuation of liquor stocks is not cheap. Among them, take the top five well-known liquor companies in the total market value of the liquor sector as an example. Their total market value exceeds 100 billion yuan, and the market value of two listed liquor companies has exceeded the trillion mark.However, judging from their valuation levels, in addition toYanghe sharesIn addition to the dynamic valuation of 32 times, the valuation level of several other liquor giants is above 60 times.Even the well-known liquor giantsKweichow Moutai, The current dynamic valuation has reached more than 64 times, which is almost the peak of valuation over the years. A few years ago, the valuation of Kweichow Moutai was less than 25 times. When the valuation of liquor stocks exceeded 30 times, the market believed that liquor stocks had been overvalued, but now it seems that the dynamic valuation of 30 or 40 times that year , Already seems very cheap.
The total market value of Kweichow Moutai is close to 3 trillion yuan, further consolidating its position as the number one stock with the highest market value.However, Kweichow Moutai’s valuation has exceeded 60 times and has reached the historical valuation peak. It stands to reason that it is currently high.riskofinvestmentarea.But from the current marketfundsIn terms of performance, it is still relatively firm to go long and has accelerated to 70 times valuationthe goalThe trend of progress.
The reason is that on the one hand, Kweichow Moutai’s profitability is very certain.fundInstitutions can already give a valuation for the next three years or morePricingOn the other hand, institutional groups continue to heat up. Under the background of strong profitability, fund institutions are more willing to get together on Moutai and continue to push up the valuation premium of Moutai.
In addition, there is a more important influencing factor, that is, the current global market liquidity is relatively loose, under the influence of loose liquidity, the market value of core assets in major markets continues to rise.For example, the US stock marketappleThe total market value reaches 2.25 trillionUSD，Microsoft、AmazonThe total market value of other core giants has reached more than US$1.6 trillion. The Hong Kong stock market adjacent to us,TencentThe total market value exceeds 7 trillionHong Kong dollarThe market value of Meituan and Kuaishou is also above one trillion Hong Kong dollars. As a result, compared with the US and Hong Kong stock markets, Kweichow Moutai, which ranks first in the total market value of the A-share market, still has a certain amount of room to increase its market value.
Obviously, in the currentMarket environmentNext, the market pays more attention not to valuation factors, but to issues such as growth and track. Under the background that the market value of giant companies in the US and Hong Kong stock markets continues to open the ceiling, the market value of giant companies in the A-share market also has room for further expansion. This is one of the reasons why capital continues to be optimistic about core assets such as Maotai.
However, from the perspective of valuation and pricing, Kweichow Moutai is not cheap, even for new economic giants in the domestic and overseas markets, their market value and valuation are also not cheap. Behind the rising market value of Moutai, it is also a reflection of the continuous increase in the valuation and market value of core assets under the relatively loose liquidity environment.
However, if there is a tightening of global liquidity in the future, it may trigger the core assets to be speculatedpriceThe downside. However, at present, the tightness of global liquidity still depends on the recovery of the global economy. Judging from the current situation, the possibility of rapid tightening of liquidity is unlikely. For core assets, it is still possible. Continue to enjoy the process of valuation premium in the future. The global asset price bubble has already existed, but almost no one can be sure when it will burst. Before the bubble bursts, capital will still maintain irrational speculation. For speculators, they will not believe that they will be the last successor. .
(Source: Financial Investment News)
(Editor in charge: DF386)
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