the Global Food System’s Impact

The global food system significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, land-use changes, unsustainable freshwater consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Agriculture utilizes over a third of possibly cultivable land, exerting considerable pressure on natural resources and planetary boundaries, leading to climate change, biodiversity decline, and soil degradation.

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use accounts for 11-12 percent of global GHG emissions, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Within the European Union, nearly 45 percent of all environmental impacts stem from agri-food systems, and agricultural emissions have shown subpar progress despite substantial spending through the EU Common Agricultural Policy. Addressing these shortcomings and investing in sustainable change could yield up to $10 trillion.

Greece’s Agricultural Landscape

Agriculture is vital to Greece, contributing 4 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) and employing 11 percent of its workforce, the second highest among the 27 EU member states.Greece excels in producing high-value products like olive oil, ranking among the top global producers, along with important production of tomatoes, peaches, and grapes for both domestic use and exports.

The Greek agri-food system generates 7-9 metric tons of carbon dioxide annually and consumes over 80 percent of the country’s water. While emissions are gradually decreasing, the sector faces challenges from slow technological adoption and persistent low productivity.

Dietary Patterns and Planetary Health

Reducing GHG emissions from agri-food systems can be achieved through changes in dietary patterns. The quality of our diet is more crucial than where we source our food. The mediterranean diet,rich in fruits,vegetables,whole grains,and legumes,and low in red meat and sugar,can mitigate climate change through GHG emissions abatement,along with its well-documented health benefits.

Reduced red meat consumption lowers livestock emissions, primarily methane, and frees up land for afforestation, halting biodiversity loss and bolstering ecosystem services. Subdued meat consumption also reduces food waste, which is associated with 8-10 percent of global GHG emissions, and mitigates the adverse effects of fertilizers and pesticides.

Deviation from Tradition

Despite being in the heart of the Mediterranean, eating habits in Greece deviate from the pillars of the Mediterranean diet. Older adults show greater adherence to the diet compared with younger adults,indicating that younger generations are moving away from traditional dietary patterns.

Current food consumption patterns in Greece carry potential negative consequences for health outcomes such as morbidity and mortality, including a heightened risk of chronic diseases like cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Greek teenagers do not adhere to the Mediterranean diet and rank among the worst in adopting healthy lifestyles.

The FABLE Calculator: Modeling Sustainable Pathways

The Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, land Use and Energy (FABLE) Consortium develops national pathways for land-use, food, and agricultural systems consistent with global sustainability objectives, such as the Sustainable Progress Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement targets.

The FABLE Calculator, a potent accounting tool including 88 raw and processed indicators on the agricultural sector, the economy, and population, is used for calculations and development of sustainable pathways. Using a demand-based approach, the Calculator projects levels of greenhouse gas emissions, land use and land use change, biodiversity, agricultural production at product level, and economic indicators such as the agricultural trade balance.

The pathways are developed following the combination of predetermined and custom-built scenarios across 22 thematic categories covering climate change scenarios,policy implementation,behavioral aspects,dietary patterns,and trade. The process yields a portfolio of more than 1.5 billion potential pathways for 2050, allowing for critical evaluations of their feasibility, distributional aspects, and economic efficiency.

Projected Impacts of a Dietary Shift

The Greek FABLE Team used the FABLE Calculator to project the impacts of a shift in local food consumption according to the basic tenets of the Mediterranean diet.Keeping all other assumptions compatible with the Current Trends scenario, the team found that switching to a Mediterranean diet is associated with a 5 percent drop in GHG emissions from agriculture by 2030 and 46 percent by 2050 compared to current trends.

Compared to a business-as-usual scenario, these reductions increase to 15 percent and 60 percent, respectively. this is primarily due to reduced consumption and a significant decrease in pastureland, leading to a 40-60 percent drop in CH4 livestock emissions from enteric methane and a 35-55 percent drop in nitrogen dioxide from less fertilizer and manure management needed.

The shift is linked to a sharp reduction in agricultural production costs, but also a substantial drop in livestock production, highlighting the need to integrate supply-side measures that enhance crop and livestock productivity, as well as targeted income support for farmers.

Policy recommendations for a Mediterranean Diet Shift

Widespread adoption of the Mediterranean diet in Greece could significantly reduce GHG emissions (especially from livestock) and pesticide costs, while delivering established health benefits. This dietary shift, enhanced by agroecological practices and productivity improvements, requires strategic policy interventions.

Policy initiatives should include incorporating the Mediterranean diet into the National health Strategy, expanding social programs promoting healthy eating patterns, and aligning with the EU Farm2Fork Strategy. The country would benefit from adopting proven healthy diet awareness campaigns-as demonstrated by Canada, Denmark, and Finland-that highlight health and environmental benefits.

The agricultural sector requires incentives to adapt to healthier dietary patterns that reduce livestock production and restructure supply through new technologies and agroecological practices. Supporting local small-scale producers through community gardens and urban agriculture will improve access to nutritious Mediterranean foods while strengthening social cohesion within communities.