Goldman Sachs Won’t Deny ‘Messy End’ of China’s Zero-Corona – Bloomberg

The Chinese government could end its “zero-corona policy” before April next year, sooner than widely expected, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Towards a zero-corona policy that imposes severe restrictionsprotestAs it spreads in China, it is possible that it will end in a “chaotic” way.

Goldman’s chief China economist Xianhui said in a report Wednesday that he sees a 30% chance that Chinese authorities will seriously reopen the economy before the second quarter of 2023. “The central government is likely to be forced to choose quickly between the tightening of the lockdown (city lockdown) and the further spread of the new coronavirus,” he said.

Worsening situation around the coronavirus poses downside risks to Goldman Sachs’ fourth-quarter growth forecast for China, according to Mr. Goldman expects China’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 3% this year, slightly below the consensus forecast of 3.3% among economists polled by Bloomberg.

While the full-scale recovery in economic activity may come sooner, the probability of ending the zero-corona policy in the April-June period remains highest at around 60%, Sen. said.

Widespread outbreaks

New cases of Covid-19 hit records, virus now in every province of China

Source: Bloomberg calculations based on data from the National Health Commission of China

news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:Goldman sees the possibility of a messy early exit from Covid Zero in China(extract)

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